Virginia Tech at Louisville Week 10 College Football Matchup Virginia Tech at Louisville Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 4 2023 · Week 10 · 🏟 Papa John's Cardinal Stadium Louisville, KY · Turf · 55,000 cap
Virginia Tech✈ 299 miSame TZ
3 34
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Virginia Tech
21
Louisville
31
P&R Line Louisville -10
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Louisville -9.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
Louisville has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Louisville entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Louisville wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Louisville wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Louisville -9.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisville · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Louisville 2nd straight Home Game
Virginia Tech 2023 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion-16.0W36–1748.0W36–17OY
Sat 9/9Virginia Tech vs Purdue-1.5L17–2449.0L17–24UN
Sat 9/16Virginia Tech at Rutgers+6.5L16–3537.5L16–35ON
Sat 9/23Virginia Tech at Marshall+5.5L17–2441.5L17–24UN
Sat 9/30Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh+3.0W38–2140.0W38–21OY
Sat 10/7Virginia Tech at Florida State+23.5L17–3952.5L17–39OY
Sat 10/14Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest-1.5W30–1348.5W30–13UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/26Virginia Tech vs Syracuse-2.5W38–1047.5W38–10OY
Sat 11/4Virginia Tech at Louisville+9.5L3–3448.5L3–34UN
Sat 11/11Virginia Tech at Boston College-2.5W48–2248.5W48–22OY
Sat 11/18Virginia Tech vs NC State-2.5L28–3540.5L28–35ON
Sat 11/25Virginia Tech at Virginia-2.5W55–1752.5W55–17OY
Wed 12/27Virginia Tech vs Tulane-13.5W41–2043.5W41–20OY
Louisville 2023 Schedule
Louisville's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Louisville vs Georgia Tech-7.0W39–3449.5W39–34ON
Thu 9/7Louisville vs Murray State-43.5W56–055.5W56–0OY
Sat 9/16Louisville vs Indiana-10.0W21–1451.0W21–14UN
Sat 9/23Louisville vs Boston College-14.0W56–2853.0W56–28OY
Fri 9/29Louisville at NC State-3.5W13–1056.5W13–10UN
Sat 10/7Louisville vs Notre Dame+6.5W33–2053.0W33–20UY
Sat 10/14Louisville at Pittsburgh-7.5L21–3844.5L21–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Louisville vs Duke-5.0W23–047.0W23–0UY
Sat 11/4Louisville vs Virginia Tech-9.5W34–348.5W34–3UY
Thu 11/9Louisville vs Virginia-20.5W31–2449.5W31–24ON
Sat 11/18Louisville at Miami+1.5W38–3146.5W38–31OY
Sat 11/25Louisville vs Kentucky-7.5L31–3847.5L31–38ON
Sat 12/2Louisville vs Florida State+3.5L6–1651.0L6–16UN
Wed 12/27Louisville vs USC-4.5L28–4258.0L28–42ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Louisville PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisville
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisville
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisville
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Virginia Tech #59
+0.292
Louisville #46
+0.386
Louisville Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #70
+0.478
Louisville #64
+0.493
Louisville Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #47
0.171
Louisville #23
0.186
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisville Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #30
+8.216
Louisville #53
+8.529
Louisville Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech #55
+0.789
Louisville #11
+0.859
Louisville Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech #33
69.3
Louisville #31
69.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Louisville Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Louisville Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Virginia Tech
5.9
Louisville
10.8
Offense Rating
Virginia Tech
18.3
Louisville
21.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Virginia Tech
12.4
Louisville
11.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Louisville Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Virginia Tech #13
1.75
Louisville #18
2.14
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #68
0.75
Louisville #20
0.43
Louisville +0.39
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisville Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Virginia Tech #1
44.1
Louisville #1
64.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #77
41.9
Louisville #21
18.4
Louisville +20.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisville
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Louisville
86.8 — 5.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Louisville won by 31
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Louisville with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
4–10 (29%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Tyler Bowen Yr 2 #1
DC Chris Marve Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #1
3–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Brian Brohm Yr 1 #1
DC Ron English Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself