Sat, Oct 21 2023
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, FL
·
Turf
·
79,560 cap
Duke✈ 493 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Florida State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Florida State entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Florida State wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
Florida State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Florida State -14.0
O/U 49.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Florida State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Duke 2023 Schedule
Duke's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/4 | Duke vs Clemson | +12.5W28–7 | 54.0 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Duke vs Lafayette | -42.5W42–7 | 49.0 | W42–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Duke vs Northwestern | -17.0W38–14 | 48.0 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Duke at UConn | -22.0W41–7 | 45.0 | W41–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Duke vs Notre Dame | +5.5L14–21 | 52.5 | L14–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Duke vs NC State | -3.5W24–3 | 44.0 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Duke at Florida State | +14.0L20–38 | 49.0 | L20–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Duke at Louisville | +5.0L0–23 | 47.0 | L0–23 | U | N |
| Thu 11/2 | Duke vs Wake Forest | -6.5W24–21 | 41.0 | W24–21 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Duke at North Carolina | +9.5L45–47 | 52.5 | L45–47 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Duke at Virginia | -4.0L27–30 | 48.5 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Duke vs Pittsburgh | -4.5W30–19 | 40.5 | W30–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/23 | Duke vs Troy | +7.0W17–10 | 44.0 | W17–10 | U | Y |
Florida State 2023 Schedule
Florida State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/3 | Florida State vs LSU | +2.0W45–24 | 56.5 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Florida State vs Southern Miss | -31.0W66–13 | 54.0 | W66–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Florida State at Boston College | -25.5W31–29 | 48.0 | W31–29 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Florida State at Clemson | -2.0W31–24 | 55.5 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Florida State vs Virginia Tech | -23.5W39–17 | 52.5 | W39–17 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Florida State vs Syracuse | -18.5W41–3 | 53.5 | W41–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Florida State vs Duke | -14.0W38–20 | 49.0 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Florida State at Wake Forest | -21.0W41–16 | 53.5 | W41–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Florida State at Pittsburgh | -21.5W24–7 | 50.0 | W24–7 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Florida State vs Miami | -14.5W27–20 | 50.5 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Florida State vs North Alabama | -31 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/25 | Florida State at Florida | -6.0W24–15 | 51.0 | W24–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Florida State vs Louisville | -3.5W16–6 | 51.0 | W16–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/30 | Florida State vs Georgia | +23.5L3–63 | 47.0 | L3–63 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Florida State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +1.27
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +0.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida State
4 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Duke
29.9 — 45.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Florida State won by 18
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Florida State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Duke
Mike Elko #1
12–4 (75%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Kevin Johns
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tyler Santucci
Yr 1
#1
Florida State
Mike Norvell #1
21–16 (57%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Alex Atkins
Yr 2
#1
DC
Adam Fuller
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓