Sat, Sep 16 2023
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Wallace Wade Stadium
Durham, NC
·
Turf
·
40,000 cap
Northwestern✈ 629 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Northwestern,
while Game Control favors Duke.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
80.6%
Northwestern wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Duke wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Duke -17
O/U 48.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Duke
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Northwestern 2023 Schedule
Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/3 | Northwestern at Rutgers | +5.0L7–24 | 39.0 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Northwestern vs UTEP | -1.0W38–7 | 40.0 | W38–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Northwestern at Duke | +17.0L14–38 | 48.0 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Northwestern vs Minnesota | +11.5W37–34 | 39.5 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Northwestern vs Penn State | +27.0L13–41 | 48.0 | L13–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Northwestern vs Howard | -23.0W23–20 | 51.0 | W23–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Northwestern at Nebraska | +10.5L9–17 | 40.0 | L9–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Northwestern vs Maryland | +14.0W33–27 | 48.5 | W33–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Northwestern vs Iowa | +4.5L7–10 | 30.5 | L7–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Northwestern at Wisconsin | +9.5W24–10 | 43.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Northwestern vs Purdue | -2.5W23–15 | 47.5 | W23–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Northwestern at Illinois | +5.0W45–43 | 46.5 | W45–43 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/23 | Northwestern vs Utah | +6.5W14–7 | 44.5 | W14–7 | U | Y |
Duke 2023 Schedule
Duke's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/4 | Duke vs Clemson | +12.5W28–7 | 54.0 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Duke vs Lafayette | -42.5W42–7 | 49.0 | W42–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Duke vs Northwestern | -17.0W38–14 | 48.0 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Duke at UConn | -22.0W41–7 | 45.0 | W41–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Duke vs Notre Dame | +5.5L14–21 | 52.5 | L14–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Duke vs NC State | -3.5W24–3 | 44.0 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Duke at Florida State | +14.0L20–38 | 49.0 | L20–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Duke at Louisville | +5.0L0–23 | 47.0 | L0–23 | U | N |
| Thu 11/2 | Duke vs Wake Forest | -6.5W24–21 | 41.0 | W24–21 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Duke at North Carolina | +9.5L45–47 | 52.5 | L45–47 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Duke at Virginia | -4.0L27–30 | 48.5 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Duke vs Pittsburgh | -4.5W30–19 | 40.5 | W30–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/23 | Duke vs Troy | +7.0W17–10 | 44.0 | W17–10 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Duke
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Duke
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Duke
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northwestern Edge
Northwestern +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Duke Edge
Duke +34.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Duke
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Duke
88.6 — 5.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Duke won by 24
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Northwestern
David Braun #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Mike Bajakian
Yr 3
#1
DC
Vacant
Yr 1
#1
Duke
Mike Elko #1
12–4 (75%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Kevin Johns
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tyler Santucci
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓