Sat, Sep 16 2023
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Joe Aillet Stadium
Ruston, LA
·
Turf
·
28,019 cap
North Texas✈ 265 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors North Texas,
while Game Control favors Louisiana Tech.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
North Texas wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Louisiana Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Louisiana Tech -4.5
O/U 66.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
North Texas 2023 Schedule
North Texas's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | North Texas vs California | +5.0L21–58 | 53.5 | L21–58 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | North Texas at Florida International | -10.5L39–46 | 51.5 | L39–46 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | North Texas at Louisiana Tech | +4.5W40–37 | 66.5 | W40–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/30 | North Texas vs Abilene Christian | -15.5W45–31 | 70.5 | W45–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | North Texas at Navy | +6.5L24–27 | 60.5 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | North Texas vs Temple | -8.0W45–14 | 65.5 | W45–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | North Texas at Tulane | +20.0L28–35 | 63.5 | L28–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | North Texas vs Memphis | +6.5L42–45 | 70.0 | L42–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | North Texas vs UTSA | +7.5L29–37 | 71.0 | L29–37 | U | N |
| Fri 11/10 | North Texas at SMU | +21.5L21–45 | 67.5 | L21–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | North Texas at Tulsa | -1.5W35–28 | 69.5 | W35–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | North Texas vs UAB | -3.0W45–42 | 72.5 | W45–42 | O | N |
Louisiana Tech 2023 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | Louisiana Tech vs Florida International | -12.0W22–17 | 57.5 | W22–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/2 | Louisiana Tech at SMU | +21.0L14–38 | 66.0 | L14–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Louisiana Tech vs Northwestern State | -23.0W51–21 | 58.5 | W51–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Louisiana Tech vs North Texas | -4.5L37–40 | 66.5 | L37–40 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Louisiana Tech at Nebraska | +20.5L14–28 | 44.5 | L14–28 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/29 | Louisiana Tech at UTEP | -2.0W24–10 | 49.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/5 | Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky | +6.0L28–35 | 59.0 | L28–35 | O | N |
| Tue 10/10 | Louisiana Tech at Middle Tennessee | +3.0L23–31 | 53.5 | L23–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/24 | Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State | -3.0L24–27 | 55.0 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Louisiana Tech at Liberty | +16.5L30–56 | 58.0 | L30–56 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston | -8.5L27–42 | 49.5 | L27–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Louisiana Tech at Jacksonville State | +8.5L17–56 | 53.5 | L17–56 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Texas Edge
North Texas +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisiana Tech Edge
Louisiana Tech +17.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
North Texas
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
North Texas
8.6 — 82.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
North Texas won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
North Texas
Eric Morris #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jordan Davis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Matt Caponi
Yr 1
#1
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
5–11 (31%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jake Brown
Yr 2
#1
DC
Scott Power
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓