Louisiana Tech at SMU Week 1 College Football Matchup Louisiana Tech at SMU Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Sep 2 2023 · Week 1 · 🏟 Gerald J. Ford Stadium University Park, TX · Turf · 32,000 cap
Louisiana Tech✈ 240 miSame TZ
14 38
Final
SMU
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Louisiana Tech
19
SMU
43
P&R Line SMU -24
P&R Total O/U 62
Confidence 90 High
Vegas SMU -21 · O/U 66.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
SMU -21
O/U 66.0
Caesars Sportsbook (Colorado)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → SMU · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Louisiana Tech 2023 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26Louisiana Tech vs Florida International-12.0W22–1757.5W22–17UN
Sat 9/2Louisiana Tech at SMU+21.0L14–3866.0L14–38UN
Sat 9/9Louisiana Tech vs Northwestern State-23.0W51–2158.5W51–21OY
Sat 9/16Louisiana Tech vs North Texas-4.5L37–4066.5L37–40ON
Sat 9/23Louisiana Tech at Nebraska+20.5L14–2844.5L14–28UY
Fri 9/29Louisiana Tech at UTEP-2.0W24–1049.5W24–10UY
Thu 10/5Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky+6.0L28–3559.0L28–35ON
Tue 10/10Louisiana Tech at Middle Tennessee+3.0L23–3153.5L23–31ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/24Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-3.0L24–2755.0L24–27UN
Sat 11/4Louisiana Tech at Liberty+16.5L30–5658.0L30–56ON
Sat 11/11Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-8.5L27–4249.5L27–42ON
Sat 11/18Louisiana Tech at Jacksonville State+8.5L17–5653.5L17–56ON
SMU 2023 Schedule
SMU's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2SMU vs Louisiana Tech-21.0W38–1466.0W38–14UY
Sat 9/9SMU at Oklahoma+16.5L11–2868.5L11–28UN
Sat 9/16SMU vs Prairie View A&M-42.5W69–063.5W69–0OY
Sat 9/23SMU at TCU+7.0L17–3463.5L17–34UN
Sat 9/30SMU vs Charlotte-22.5W34–1653.0W34–16UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/12SMU at East Carolina-11.5W31–1048.5W31–10UY
Fri 10/20SMU at Temple-24.0W55–053.0W55–0OY
Sat 10/28SMU vs Tulsa-20.5W69–1055.0W69–10OY
Sat 11/4SMU at Rice-12.0W36–3159.5W36–31ON
Fri 11/10SMU vs North Texas-21.5W45–2167.5W45–21UY
Sat 11/18SMU at Memphis-9.5W38–3464.5W38–34ON
Sat 11/25SMU vs Navy-20.0W59–1446.0W59–14OY
Sat 12/2SMU at Tulane+4.0W26–1450.5W26–14UY
Thu 12/28SMU vs Boston College-13.5L14–2349.0L14–23UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
SMU PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ SMU
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ SMU
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ SMU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Louisiana Tech #91
+0.187
SMU #24
+0.532
SMU Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #87
+0.319
SMU #16
+0.678
SMU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #86
0.154
SMU #14
0.194
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
SMU Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #67
+7.506
SMU #21
+9.139
SMU Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #64
+0.780
SMU #46
+0.867
SMU Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #72
70.7
SMU #40
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
SMU Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
SMU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Louisiana Tech
-5.0
SMU
16.2
Offense Rating
Louisiana Tech
13.5
SMU
26.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Louisiana Tech
18.4
SMU
9.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Louisiana Tech #113
1.00
SMU #35
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #53
0.00
SMU #31
0.00
Louisiana Tech +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Louisiana Tech #1
22.4
SMU #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #124
47.2
SMU #9
0.0
Louisiana Tech +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
SMU
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
SMU
85.4 — 5.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
SMU won by 24
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on SMU, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
5–11 (31%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Jake Brown Yr 2 #1
DC Scott Power Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
SMU
Rhett Lashlee #1
9–7 (56%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Casey Woods Yr 2 #1
DC Scott Symons Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself