Wed, Nov 22 2023
·
Week 13
·
🏟 UB Stadium
Amherst, NY
·
Turf
·
29,013 cap
Eastern Michigan✈ 252 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Buffalo,
while Game Control favors Eastern Michigan.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Eastern Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Buffalo -6.5
O/U 38.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Buffalo
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Eastern Michigan 2023 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Eastern Michigan vs Howard | -20.0W33–23 | 55.5 | W33–23 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Eastern Michigan at Minnesota | +19.5L6–25 | 48.0 | L6–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Eastern Michigan vs Massachusetts | -7.0W19–17 | 50.0 | W19–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Eastern Michigan at Jacksonville State | +6.5L0–21 | 51.0 | L0–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan | +9.5L23–26 | 45.0 | L23–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Eastern Michigan vs Ball State | -2.5W24–10 | 43.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Eastern Michigan vs Kent State | -7.0W28–14 | 40.0 | W28–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois | +11.5L13–20 | 43.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan | +3.0L21–45 | 50.0 | L21–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/8 | Eastern Michigan at Toledo | +19.5L23–49 | 45.5 | L23–49 | O | N |
| Tue 11/14 | Eastern Michigan vs Akron | -3.5W30–27 | 39.5 | W30–27 | O | N |
| Tue 11/21 | Eastern Michigan at Buffalo | +6.5W24–11 | 38.5 | W24–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/23 | Eastern Michigan vs South Alabama | +18.0L10–59 | 43.0 | L10–59 | O | N |
Buffalo 2023 Schedule
Buffalo's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Buffalo at Wisconsin | +29.0L17–38 | 52.5 | L17–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Buffalo vs Fordham | -23.5L37–40 | 55.5 | L37–40 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Buffalo vs Liberty | +2.5L27–55 | 54.0 | L27–55 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Buffalo at Louisiana | +10.5L38–45 | 57.5 | L38–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Buffalo at Akron | +3.0W13–10 | 53.0 | W13–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Buffalo vs Central Michigan | +2.5W37–13 | 51.5 | W37–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Buffalo vs Bowling Green | -3.0L14–24 | 44.5 | L14–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Buffalo at Kent State | -6.5W24–6 | 44.0 | W24–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/31 | Buffalo at Toledo | +14.0L13–31 | 47.0 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Tue 11/7 | Buffalo vs Ohio | +9.5L10–20 | 45.5 | L10–20 | U | N |
| Wed 11/15 | Buffalo at Miami (OH) | +7.5L10–23 | 36.5 | L10–23 | U | N |
| Tue 11/21 | Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan | -6.5L11–24 | 38.5 | L11–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Buffalo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Eastern Michigan Edge
Eastern Michigan +5.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
48–62 (44%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Chris Creighton
Yr 3
#1
DC
Taver Johnson
Yr 1
#1
Buffalo
Maurice Linguist #1
11–17 (39%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
DJ Mangas
Yr 1
#1
DC
Robert Wright
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓