Matchup Prediction
Tennessee
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Tennessee entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Tennessee wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Tennessee wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Tennessee -4.5
O/U 37.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Tennessee
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Iowa 2023 Schedule
Iowa's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Iowa vs Utah State | -24.0W24–14 | 43.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Iowa at Iowa State | -3.5W20–13 | 35.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Iowa vs Western Michigan | -28.5W41–10 | 43.5 | W41–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Iowa at Penn State | +14.0L0–31 | 38.5 | L0–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Iowa vs Michigan State | -10.0W26–16 | 36.5 | W26–16 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Iowa vs Purdue | -2.5W20–14 | 38.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Iowa at Wisconsin | +8.0W15–6 | 33.5 | W15–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Iowa vs Minnesota | -3.0L10–12 | 30.5 | L10–12 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Iowa vs Northwestern | -4.5W10–7 | 30.5 | W10–7 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Iowa vs Rutgers | +2.5W22–0 | 27.5 | W22–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Iowa vs Illinois | -2.5W15–13 | 33.5 | W15–13 | U | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Iowa at Nebraska | +3.0W13–10 | 25.5 | W13–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Iowa vs Michigan | +23.5L0–26 | 35.0 | L0–26 | U | N |
| Mon 1/1 | Iowa vs Tennessee | +4.5L0–35 | 37.0 | L0–35 | U | N |
Tennessee 2023 Schedule
Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Tennessee vs Virginia | -27.5W49–13 | 56.0 | W49–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Tennessee vs Austin Peay | -48.0W30–13 | 65.5 | W30–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Tennessee at Florida | -5.0L16–29 | 57.0 | L16–29 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Tennessee vs UTSA | -24.0W45–14 | 59.0 | W45–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Tennessee vs South Carolina | -12.0W41–20 | 59.0 | W41–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Tennessee vs Texas A&M | -3.0W20–13 | 54.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Tennessee at Alabama | +8.5L20–34 | 47.5 | L20–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Tennessee at Kentucky | -4.0W33–27 | 50.5 | W33–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Tennessee vs UConn | -35.0W59–3 | 55.5 | W59–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Tennessee at Missouri | -1.0L7–36 | 58.5 | L7–36 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Tennessee vs Georgia | +9.0L10–38 | 59.0 | L10–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Tennessee vs Vanderbilt | -27.0W48–24 | 58.0 | W48–24 | O | N |
| Mon 1/1 | Tennessee vs Iowa | -4.5W35–0 | 37.0 | W35–0 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +0.48
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +7.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tennessee
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Tennessee
77.2 — 8.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Tennessee won by 35
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Tennessee. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Iowa
Kirk Ferentz #1
189–115 (62%)
· Yr 25 at school
OC
Brian Ferentz
Yr 3
#1
DC
Phil Parker
Yr 3
#1
Tennessee
Josh Heupel #1
20–9 (69%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Joey Halzle
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Banks
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓