Sat, Oct 8 2022
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Waldo Stadium
Kalamazoo, MI
·
Turf
·
30,200 cap
Eastern Michigan✈ 99 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Eastern Michigan
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Eastern Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Eastern Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Eastern Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Western Michigan -4.5
O/U 55.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Eastern Michigan
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Eastern Michigan 2022 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Eastern Michigan vs Eastern Kentucky | -10.5W42–34 | 57.5 | W42–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Eastern Michigan at Louisiana | +11.0L21–49 | 56.0 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Eastern Michigan at Arizona State | +20.5W30–21 | 56.5 | W30–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo | -6.5L31–50 | 57.5 | L31–50 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Eastern Michigan vs Massachusetts | -20.0W20–13 | 53.0 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan | +4.5W45–23 | 55.5 | W45–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Eastern Michigan vs Northern Illinois | -3.5L10–39 | 64.5 | L10–39 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Eastern Michigan at Ball State | +2.5W20–16 | 57.5 | W20–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Eastern Michigan vs Toledo | +4.0L24–27 | 54.0 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/8 | Eastern Michigan at Akron | -6.5W34–28 | 57.0 | W34–28 | O | N |
| Wed 11/16 | Eastern Michigan at Kent State | +7.5W31–24 | 60.0 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan | -1.0W38–19 | 53.5 | W38–19 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/20 | Eastern Michigan vs San José State | +3.5W41–27 | 54.0 | W41–27 | O | Y |
Western Michigan 2022 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Western Michigan at Michigan State | +22.0L13–35 | 54.5 | L13–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Western Michigan at Ball State | -6.5W37–30 | 51.5 | W37–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Western Michigan vs Pittsburgh | +10.0L13–34 | 46.0 | L13–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Western Michigan at San José State | +6.5L6–34 | 49.0 | L6–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Western Michigan vs New Hampshire | -15.0W44–7 | 52.5 | W44–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan | -4.5L23–45 | 55.5 | L23–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Western Michigan vs Ohio | -2.0L14–33 | 61.5 | L14–33 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Western Michigan at Miami (OH) | +7.0W16–10 | 44.0 | W16–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/2 | Western Michigan at Bowling Green | +5.0L9–13 | 48.0 | L9–13 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/9 | Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois | +1.0L21–24 | 49.0 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Wed 11/16 | Western Michigan at Central Michigan | +10.0W12–10 | 49.0 | W12–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Western Michigan vs Toledo | +8.5W20–14 | 50.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Eastern Michigan Edge
Eastern Michigan +0.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Eastern Michigan Edge
Eastern Michigan +17.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Eastern Michigan with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
37–57 (39%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Chris Creighton
Yr 2
#1
DC
Neal Neathery
Yr 2
#1
Western Michigan
Tim Lester #1
32–25 (56%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Eric Evans
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lou Esposito
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓