Wed, Nov 16 2022
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Dix Stadium
Kent, OH
·
Turf
·
25,000 cap
Eastern Michigan✈ 143 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Kent State,
while Game Control favors Eastern Michigan.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kent State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Eastern Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kent State -7.5
O/U 60.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Eastern Michigan
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Eastern Michigan 2022 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Eastern Michigan vs Eastern Kentucky | -10.5W42–34 | 57.5 | W42–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Eastern Michigan at Louisiana | +11.0L21–49 | 56.0 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Eastern Michigan at Arizona State | +20.5W30–21 | 56.5 | W30–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo | -6.5L31–50 | 57.5 | L31–50 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Eastern Michigan vs Massachusetts | -20.0W20–13 | 53.0 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan | +4.5W45–23 | 55.5 | W45–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Eastern Michigan vs Northern Illinois | -3.5L10–39 | 64.5 | L10–39 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Eastern Michigan at Ball State | +2.5W20–16 | 57.5 | W20–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Eastern Michigan vs Toledo | +4.0L24–27 | 54.0 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/8 | Eastern Michigan at Akron | -6.5W34–28 | 57.0 | W34–28 | O | N |
| Wed 11/16 | Eastern Michigan at Kent State | +7.5W31–24 | 60.0 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan | -1.0W38–19 | 53.5 | W38–19 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/20 | Eastern Michigan vs San José State | +3.5W41–27 | 54.0 | W41–27 | O | Y |
Kent State 2022 Schedule
Kent State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Kent State at Washington | +23.5L20–45 | 61.5 | L20–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Kent State at Oklahoma | +33.5L3–33 | 73.0 | L3–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Kent State vs Long Island University | -40.0W63–10 | 64.5 | W63–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Kent State at Georgia | +45.0L22–39 | 61.5 | L22–39 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Kent State vs Ohio | -13.0W31–24 | 65.5 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Kent State at Miami (OH) | -5.0L24–27 | 56.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Kent State at Toledo | +7.0L31–52 | 62.5 | L31–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Kent State vs Akron | -16.0W33–27 | 65.0 | W33–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/1 | Kent State vs Ball State | -7.0L20–27 | 61.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Wed 11/9 | Kent State at Bowling Green | -2.5W40–6 | 55.5 | W40–6 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/16 | Kent State vs Eastern Michigan | -7.5L24–31 | 60.0 | L24–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Kent State at Buffalo | +4.5W30–27 | 51.0 | W30–27 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kent State Edge
Kent State +0.09
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Eastern Michigan Edge
Eastern Michigan +4.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Eastern Michigan
2 — 3 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kent State
48.1 — 29.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Eastern Michigan won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
37–57 (39%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Chris Creighton
Yr 2
#1
DC
Neal Neathery
Yr 2
#1
Kent State
Sean Lewis #1
19–24 (44%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Andrew Sowder
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jeremiah Johnson
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓