Sat, Oct 15 2022
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Rynearson Stadium
Ypsilanti, MI
·
Turf
·
30,200 cap
Northern Illinois✈ 263 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Eastern Michigan
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Eastern Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Eastern Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Eastern Michigan wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Eastern Michigan -3.5
O/U 64.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Eastern Michigan
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Northern Illinois 2022 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Northern Illinois vs Eastern Illinois | -35.0W34–27 | 55.5 | W34–27 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Northern Illinois at Tulsa | +6.5L35–38 | 63.0 | L35–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Northern Illinois vs Vanderbilt | -2.5L28–38 | 58.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Northern Illinois at Kentucky | +27.0L23–31 | 52.5 | L23–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Northern Illinois at Ball State | -3.5L38–44 | 58.5 | L38–44 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Northern Illinois vs Toledo | +6.5L32–52 | 59.0 | L32–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan | +3.5W39–10 | 64.5 | W39–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Northern Illinois at Ohio | -2.5L17–24 | 65.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/2 | Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan | -4.5L22–35 | 54.0 | L22–35 | O | N |
| Wed 11/9 | Northern Illinois at Western Michigan | -1.0W24–21 | 49.0 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/16 | Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH) | -1.0L23–29 | 44.0 | L23–29 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Northern Illinois vs Akron | -9.5L12–44 | 51.5 | L12–44 | O | N |
Eastern Michigan 2022 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Eastern Michigan vs Eastern Kentucky | -10.5W42–34 | 57.5 | W42–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Eastern Michigan at Louisiana | +11.0L21–49 | 56.0 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Eastern Michigan at Arizona State | +20.5W30–21 | 56.5 | W30–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo | -6.5L31–50 | 57.5 | L31–50 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Eastern Michigan vs Massachusetts | -20.0W20–13 | 53.0 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan | +4.5W45–23 | 55.5 | W45–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Eastern Michigan vs Northern Illinois | -3.5L10–39 | 64.5 | L10–39 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Eastern Michigan at Ball State | +2.5W20–16 | 57.5 | W20–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Eastern Michigan vs Toledo | +4.0L24–27 | 54.0 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/8 | Eastern Michigan at Akron | -6.5W34–28 | 57.0 | W34–28 | O | N |
| Wed 11/16 | Eastern Michigan at Kent State | +7.5W31–24 | 60.0 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan | -1.0W38–19 | 53.5 | W38–19 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/20 | Eastern Michigan vs San José State | +3.5W41–27 | 54.0 | W41–27 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Eastern Michigan Edge
Eastern Michigan +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Eastern Michigan Edge
Eastern Michigan +12.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Eastern Michigan with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
14–18 (44%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Eric Eidsness
Yr 2
#1
DC
Nick Benedetto
Yr 1
#1
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
37–57 (39%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Chris Creighton
Yr 2
#1
DC
Neal Neathery
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓