Iowa State at TCU Week 13 College Football Matchup Iowa State at TCU Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 26 2022 · Week 13 · 🏟 Amon G. Carter Stadium Fort Worth, TX · Turf · 45,000 cap
Iowa State✈ 674 miSame TZ
14 62
Final
TCU
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Iowa State
15
TCU -9.5
TCU
36
P&R Line TCU -21.5
P&R Total O/U 50.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas TCU -9.5 · O/U 46.0
Matchup Prediction
TCU has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor TCU entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
TCU wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
TCU wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
TCU -9.5
O/U 46.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → TCU · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Iowa State 2022 Schedule
Iowa State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Iowa State vs Southeast Missouri State-33.5W42–1054.5W42–10UN
Sat 9/10Iowa State at Iowa+3.5W10–739.0W10–7UY
Sat 9/17Iowa State vs Ohio-20.0W43–1048.0W43–10OY
Sat 9/24Iowa State vs Baylor-2.5L24–3145.0L24–31ON
Sat 10/1Iowa State at Kansas-3.5L11–1459.0L11–14UN
Sat 10/8Iowa State vs Kansas State+1.0L9–1045.0L9–10UY
Sat 10/15Iowa State at Texas+15.5L21–2448.5L21–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/29Iowa State vs Oklahoma+1.5L13–2758.0L13–27UN
Sat 11/5Iowa State vs West Virginia-6.5W31–1449.5W31–14UY
Sat 11/12Iowa State at Oklahoma State-2.5L14–2047.5L14–20UN
Sat 11/19Iowa State vs Texas Tech-3.5L10–1447.5L10–14UN
Sat 11/26Iowa State at TCU+9.5L14–6246.0L14–62ON
TCU 2022 Schedule
TCU's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2TCU at Colorado-13.5W38–1359.0W38–13UY
Sat 9/10TCU vs Tarleton State-40.0W59–1766.5W59–17OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/24TCU at SMU-2.5W42–3472.0W42–34OY
Sat 10/1TCU vs Oklahoma+5.0W55–2469.5W55–24OY
Sat 10/8TCU at Kansas-7.0W38–3170.0W38–31UN
Sat 10/15TCU vs Oklahoma State-5.0W43–4069.5W43–40ON
Sat 10/22TCU vs Kansas State-3.5W38–2854.5W38–28OY
Sat 10/29TCU at West Virginia-7.0W41–3170.0W41–31OY
Sat 11/5TCU vs Texas Tech-8.5W34–2469.0W34–24UY
Sat 11/12TCU at Texas+7.5W17–1065.0W17–10UY
Sat 11/19TCU at Baylor-2.0W29–2858.0W29–28UN
Sat 11/26TCU vs Iowa State-9.5W62–1446.0W62–14OY
Sat 12/3TCU vs Kansas State-1.0L28–3160.5L28–31UN
Sat 12/31TCU vs Michigan+8.0W51–4556.0W51–45OY
Mon 1/9TCU vs Georgia+13.5L7–6562.0L7–65ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
TCU PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ TCU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Iowa State
+0.293
TCU
+0.402
TCU Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State
+0.454
TCU
+0.625
TCU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Iowa State
0.171
TCU
0.158
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State
+7.870
TCU
+7.536
Iowa State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Iowa State
+0.805
TCU
+0.834
TCU Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Iowa State
72.5
TCU
69.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
TCU Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
TCU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Iowa State
3.1
TCU
6.6
Offense Rating
Iowa State
15.7
TCU
17.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Iowa State
12.6
TCU
11.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? TCU Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Iowa State #82
1.09
TCU #30
1.73
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #34
0.46
TCU #111
0.64
TCU +0.64
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? TCU Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Iowa State #1
38.3
TCU #1
62.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #88
43.0
TCU #34
21.4
TCU +24.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
TCU
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
TCU
97.3 — 1.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
TCU won by 48
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on TCU with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
42–32 (57%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Tom Manning Yr 2 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
TCU
Sonny Dykes #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Garrett Riley Yr 1 #1
DC Joseph Gillespie Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself