Sat, Oct 15 2022
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Amon G. Carter Stadium
Fort Worth, TX
·
Turf
·
45,000 cap
Oklahoma State✈ 236 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Oklahoma State,
while Game Control favors TCU.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Oklahoma State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
TCU wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
TCU -5
O/U 69.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → TCU
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Oklahoma State 2022 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Oklahoma State vs Central Michigan | -20.5W58–44 | 58.0 | W58–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Oklahoma State vs Arizona State | -12.0W34–17 | 58.5 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Oklahoma State vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -54.5W63–7 | 64.5 | W63–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/1 | Oklahoma State at Baylor | +2.5W36–25 | 56.0 | W36–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech | -11.0W41–31 | 66.0 | W41–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Oklahoma State at TCU | +5.0L40–43 | 69.5 | L40–43 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Oklahoma State vs Texas | +6.5W41–34 | 58.5 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Oklahoma State at Kansas State | +2.5L0–48 | 57.5 | L0–48 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Oklahoma State at Kansas | +3.0L16–37 | 59.5 | L16–37 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Oklahoma State vs Iowa State | +2.5W20–14 | 47.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Oklahoma State at Oklahoma | +7.0L13–28 | 67.5 | L13–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Oklahoma State vs West Virginia | -5.5L19–24 | 59.5 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Tue 12/27 | Oklahoma State vs Wisconsin | +5.0L17–24 | 45.0 | L17–24 | U | N |
TCU 2022 Schedule
TCU's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | TCU at Colorado | -13.5W38–13 | 59.0 | W38–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | TCU vs Tarleton State | -40.0W59–17 | 66.5 | W59–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/24 | TCU at SMU | -2.5W42–34 | 72.0 | W42–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | TCU vs Oklahoma | +5.0W55–24 | 69.5 | W55–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | TCU at Kansas | -7.0W38–31 | 70.0 | W38–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | TCU vs Oklahoma State | -5.0W43–40 | 69.5 | W43–40 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | TCU vs Kansas State | -3.5W38–28 | 54.5 | W38–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | TCU at West Virginia | -7.0W41–31 | 70.0 | W41–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | TCU vs Texas Tech | -8.5W34–24 | 69.0 | W34–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | TCU at Texas | +7.5W17–10 | 65.0 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | TCU at Baylor | -2.0W29–28 | 58.0 | W29–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | TCU vs Iowa State | -9.5W62–14 | 46.0 | W62–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | TCU vs Kansas State | -1.0L28–31 | 60.5 | L28–31 | U | N |
| Sat 12/31 | TCU vs Michigan | +8.0W51–45 | 56.0 | W51–45 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/9 | TCU vs Georgia | +13.5L7–65 | 62.0 | L7–65 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ TCU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oklahoma State Edge
Oklahoma State +0.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
TCU Edge
TCU +9.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oklahoma State
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Oklahoma State
13.0 — 70.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
TCU won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
149–69 (68%)
· Yr 18 at school
OC
Kasey Dunn
Yr 2
#1
DC
Derek Mason
Yr 1
#1
TCU
Sonny Dykes #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Garrett Riley
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joseph Gillespie
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓