Buffalo at Bowling Green Week 6 College Football Matchup Buffalo at Bowling Green Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 8 2022 · Week 6 · 🏟 Doyt Perry Stadium Bowling Green, OH · Turf · 24,000 cap
Buffalo✈ 272 miSame TZ
Away
38 7
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Buffalo
31
Bowling Green
25
P&R Line Buffalo -6.5
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Buffalo -2 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Buffalo -2
O/U 55.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Buffalo 2022 Schedule
Buffalo's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Buffalo at Maryland+24.0L10–3166.0L10–31UY
Sat 9/10Buffalo vs Holy Cross-6.0L31–3751.5L31–37ON
Sat 9/17Buffalo at Coastal Carolina+12.0L26–3860.0L26–38OY
Sat 9/24Buffalo at Eastern Michigan+6.5W50–3157.5W50–31OY
Sat 10/1Buffalo vs Miami (OH)-3.0W24–2050.0W24–20UY
Sat 10/8Buffalo at Bowling Green-2.0W38–755.5W38–7UY
Sat 10/15Buffalo at Massachusetts-17.0W34–747.5W34–7UY
Sat 10/22Buffalo vs Toledo+7.0W34–2756.0W34–27OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/1Buffalo at Ohio-2.5L24–4561.0L24–45ON
Wed 11/9Buffalo at Central Michigan+3.0L27–3154.0L27–31ON
Sat 11/19Buffalo vs Akron-14.043.5
Sat 11/26Buffalo vs Kent State-4.5L27–3051.0L27–30ON
Fri 12/2Buffalo vs Akron-12.0W23–2255.0W23–22UN
Tue 12/27Buffalo vs Georgia Southern+6.0W23–2167.0W23–21UY
Bowling Green 2022 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Bowling Green at UCLA+24.0L17–4556.5L17–45ON
Sat 9/10Bowling Green vs Eastern Kentucky-7.5L57–5957.0L57–59ON
Sat 9/17Bowling Green vs Marshall+17.0W34–3150.0W34–31OY
Sat 9/24Bowling Green at Mississippi State+31.0L14–4553.0L14–45OY
Sat 10/1Bowling Green at Akron-9.0W31–2849.5W31–28ON
Sat 10/8Bowling Green vs Buffalo+2.0L7–3855.5L7–38UN
Sat 10/15Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)+7.0W17–1345.0W17–13UY
Sat 10/22Bowling Green at Central Michigan+5.5W34–1851.0W34–18OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/2Bowling Green vs Western Michigan-5.0W13–948.0W13–9UN
Wed 11/9Bowling Green vs Kent State+2.5L6–4055.5L6–40UN
Tue 11/15Bowling Green at Toledo+14.5W42–3547.0W42–35OY
Tue 11/22Bowling Green at Ohio+5.5L14–3852.5L14–38UN
Mon 12/26Bowling Green vs New Mexico State-3.0L19–2451.0L19–24UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Bowling Green PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Buffalo
+0.348
Bowling Green
+0.427
Bowling Green Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Buffalo
+0.626
Bowling Green
+0.627
Bowling Green Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Buffalo
0.251
Bowling Green
0.184
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Buffalo Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Buffalo
+8.143
Bowling Green
+6.663
Buffalo Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Buffalo
+0.854
Bowling Green
+0.803
Buffalo Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Buffalo
70.5
Bowling Green
69.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Bowling Green Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Bowling Green Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Buffalo
-10.8
Bowling Green
-9.7
Offense Rating
Buffalo
7.6
Bowling Green
10.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Buffalo
18.3
Bowling Green
20.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Buffalo #68
1.00
Bowling Green #97
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Buffalo #29
0.25
Bowling Green #122
1.20
Buffalo +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Buffalo Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Buffalo #1
30.8
Bowling Green #1
26.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Buffalo #71
49.1
Bowling Green #110
61.2
Buffalo +4.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Buffalo
Maurice Linguist #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Shane Montgomery Yr 2 #1
DC Brandon Bailey Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
7–22 (24%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Terry Malone Yr 2 #1
DC Eric Lewis Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself