Marshall at Bowling Green Week 3 College Football Matchup Marshall at Bowling Green Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 17 2022 · Week 3 · 🏟 Doyt Perry Stadium Bowling Green, OH · Turf · 24,000 cap
Marshall✈ 213 miSame TZ
Away
31 34
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Marshall
34
Bowling Green
15
P&R Line Marshall -18.5
P&R Total O/U 49
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Marshall -17 · O/U 50.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Bowling Green, while Game Control favors Marshall. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
71.6%
Bowling Green wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Marshall wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Marshall -17
O/U 50.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Marshall · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Bowling Green 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Marshall 2nd straight Road Game
Marshall 2022 Schedule
Marshall's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Marshall vs Norfolk State-40.5W55–359.0W55–3UY
Sat 9/10Marshall at Notre Dame+20.5W26–2148.0W26–21UY
Sat 9/17Marshall at Bowling Green-17.0L31–3450.0L31–34ON
Sat 9/24Marshall at Troy-3.0L7–1651.5L7–16UN
Sat 10/1Marshall vs Gardner-Webb-31.0W28–756.0W28–7UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/12Marshall vs Louisiana-10.5L13–2345.5L13–23UN
Sat 10/22Marshall at James Madison+9.5W26–1248.5W26–12UY
Sat 10/29Marshall vs Coastal Carolina-2.5L13–2454.0L13–24UN
Sat 11/5Marshall at Old Dominion-3.5W12–046.5W12–0UY
Sat 11/12Marshall vs App State+2.0W28–2147.5W28–21OY
Sat 11/19Marshall at Georgia Southern-6.0W23–1052.5W23–10UY
Sat 11/26Marshall vs Georgia State-6.5W28–2345.5W28–23ON
Mon 12/19Marshall vs UConn-11.5W28–1442.0W28–14UY
Bowling Green 2022 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Bowling Green at UCLA+24.0L17–4556.5L17–45ON
Sat 9/10Bowling Green vs Eastern Kentucky-7.5L57–5957.0L57–59ON
Sat 9/17Bowling Green vs Marshall+17.0W34–3150.0W34–31OY
Sat 9/24Bowling Green at Mississippi State+31.0L14–4553.0L14–45OY
Sat 10/1Bowling Green at Akron-9.0W31–2849.5W31–28ON
Sat 10/8Bowling Green vs Buffalo+2.0L7–3855.5L7–38UN
Sat 10/15Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)+7.0W17–1345.0W17–13UY
Sat 10/22Bowling Green at Central Michigan+5.5W34–1851.0W34–18OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/2Bowling Green vs Western Michigan-5.0W13–948.0W13–9UN
Wed 11/9Bowling Green vs Kent State+2.5L6–4055.5L6–40UN
Tue 11/15Bowling Green at Toledo+14.5W42–3547.0W42–35OY
Tue 11/22Bowling Green at Ohio+5.5L14–3852.5L14–38UN
Mon 12/26Bowling Green vs New Mexico State-3.0L19–2451.0L19–24UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Marshall PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Marshall
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Marshall
+0.238
Bowling Green
+0.102
Marshall Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Marshall
+0.350
Bowling Green
+0.216
Marshall Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Marshall
0.244
Bowling Green
0.184
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Marshall Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Marshall
+6.908
Bowling Green
+5.544
Marshall Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Marshall
+0.821
Bowling Green
+0.689
Marshall Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Marshall
68.6
Bowling Green
69.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Marshall Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Marshall Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Marshall
-3.1
Bowling Green
-9.7
Offense Rating
Marshall
13.9
Bowling Green
10.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Marshall
17.0
Bowling Green
20.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Bowling Green Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Marshall #112
0.00
Bowling Green #97
1.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Marshall #21
0.00
Bowling Green #122
1.00
Bowling Green +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Marshall Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Marshall #1
63.0
Bowling Green #1
23.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Marshall #46
28.8
Bowling Green #110
60.7
Marshall +39.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Marshall
12.5 — 69.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Bowling Green won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Marshall
Charles Huff #1
7–6 (54%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Clint Trickett Yr 1 #1
DC Lance Guidry Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
7–22 (24%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Terry Malone Yr 2 #1
DC Eric Lewis Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself