Thu, Nov 10 2022
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Mount Pleasant, MI
·
Turf
·
32,885 cap
Buffalo✈ 304 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Buffalo
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Buffalo entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Central Michigan -3
O/U 54.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Buffalo 2022 Schedule
Buffalo's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Buffalo at Maryland | +24.0L10–31 | 66.0 | L10–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Buffalo vs Holy Cross | -6.0L31–37 | 51.5 | L31–37 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Buffalo at Coastal Carolina | +12.0L26–38 | 60.0 | L26–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Buffalo at Eastern Michigan | +6.5W50–31 | 57.5 | W50–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Buffalo vs Miami (OH) | -3.0W24–20 | 50.0 | W24–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Buffalo at Bowling Green | -2.0W38–7 | 55.5 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Buffalo at Massachusetts | -17.0W34–7 | 47.5 | W34–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Buffalo vs Toledo | +7.0W34–27 | 56.0 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/1 | Buffalo at Ohio | -2.5L24–45 | 61.0 | L24–45 | O | N |
| Wed 11/9 | Buffalo at Central Michigan | +3.0L27–31 | 54.0 | L27–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Buffalo vs Akron | -14.0 | 43.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/26 | Buffalo vs Kent State | -4.5L27–30 | 51.0 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Fri 12/2 | Buffalo vs Akron | -12.0W23–22 | 55.0 | W23–22 | U | N |
| Tue 12/27 | Buffalo vs Georgia Southern | +6.0W23–21 | 67.0 | W23–21 | U | Y |
Central Michigan 2022 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Central Michigan at Oklahoma State | +20.5L44–58 | 58.0 | L44–58 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Central Michigan vs South Alabama | -6.0L24–38 | 57.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Central Michigan vs Bucknell | -41.0W41–0 | 59.0 | W41–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Central Michigan at Penn State | +28.0L14–33 | 61.5 | L14–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Central Michigan at Toledo | +6.5L17–38 | 56.0 | L17–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Central Michigan vs Ball State | -7.5L16–17 | 63.0 | L16–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Central Michigan at Akron | -12.0W28–21 | 60.5 | W28–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Central Michigan vs Bowling Green | -5.5L18–34 | 51.0 | L18–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/2 | Central Michigan at Northern Illinois | +4.5W35–22 | 54.0 | W35–22 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/9 | Central Michigan vs Buffalo | -3.0W31–27 | 54.0 | W31–27 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/16 | Central Michigan vs Western Michigan | -10.0L10–12 | 49.0 | L10–12 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan | +1.0L19–38 | 53.5 | L19–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +0.63
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +5.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Buffalo
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Buffalo
22.6 — 49.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Central Michigan won by 4
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Buffalo, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Buffalo
Maurice Linguist #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Shane Montgomery
Yr 2
#1
DC
Brandon Bailey
Yr 1
#1
Central Michigan
Jim McElwain #1
20–13 (61%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Paul Petrino
Yr 1
#1
DC
Robb Akey
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓