Sat, Oct 1 2022
·
Week 5
·
🏟 UB Stadium
Amherst, NY
·
Turf
·
29,013 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 391 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Buffalo
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Buffalo entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Buffalo -3
O/U 50.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Miami (OH) 2022 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Miami (OH) at Kentucky | +15.0L13–37 | 55.0 | L13–37 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Miami (OH) vs Robert Morris | -30.0W31–14 | 54.0 | W31–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati | +24.0L17–38 | 51.0 | L17–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Miami (OH) at Northwestern | +7.5W17–14 | 50.0 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Miami (OH) at Buffalo | +3.0L20–24 | 50.0 | L20–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Miami (OH) vs Kent State | +5.0W27–24 | 56.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Miami (OH) at Bowling Green | -7.0L13–17 | 45.0 | L13–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan | -7.0L10–16 | 44.0 | L10–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Miami (OH) at Akron | -9.0W27–9 | 51.5 | W27–9 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/8 | Miami (OH) vs Ohio | +2.5L21–37 | 52.0 | L21–37 | O | N |
| Wed 11/16 | Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois | +1.0W29–23 | 44.0 | W29–23 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/22 | Miami (OH) vs Ball State | -2.5W18–17 | 45.0 | W18–17 | U | N |
| Fri 12/16 | Miami (OH) vs UAB | +11.0L20–24 | 44.5 | L20–24 | U | Y |
Buffalo 2022 Schedule
Buffalo's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Buffalo at Maryland | +24.0L10–31 | 66.0 | L10–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Buffalo vs Holy Cross | -6.0L31–37 | 51.5 | L31–37 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Buffalo at Coastal Carolina | +12.0L26–38 | 60.0 | L26–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Buffalo at Eastern Michigan | +6.5W50–31 | 57.5 | W50–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Buffalo vs Miami (OH) | -3.0W24–20 | 50.0 | W24–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Buffalo at Bowling Green | -2.0W38–7 | 55.5 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Buffalo at Massachusetts | -17.0W34–7 | 47.5 | W34–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Buffalo vs Toledo | +7.0W34–27 | 56.0 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/1 | Buffalo at Ohio | -2.5L24–45 | 61.0 | L24–45 | O | N |
| Wed 11/9 | Buffalo at Central Michigan | +3.0L27–31 | 54.0 | L27–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Buffalo vs Akron | -14.0 | 43.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/26 | Buffalo vs Kent State | -4.5L27–30 | 51.0 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Fri 12/2 | Buffalo vs Akron | -12.0W23–22 | 55.0 | W23–22 | U | N |
| Tue 12/27 | Buffalo vs Georgia Southern | +6.0W23–21 | 67.0 | W23–21 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +0.58
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +8.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Buffalo. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
39–52 (43%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Eric Koehler
Yr 2
#1
DC
Bill Brechin
Yr 1
#1
Buffalo
Maurice Linguist #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Shane Montgomery
Yr 2
#1
DC
Brandon Bailey
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓