Wed, Nov 23 2022
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Peden Stadium
Athens, OH
·
Turf
·
24,000 cap
Bowling Green✈ 163 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Ohio
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ohio entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Ohio wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Ohio wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Ohio -5.5
O/U 52.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ohio
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Bowling Green 2022 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Bowling Green at UCLA | +24.0L17–45 | 56.5 | L17–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Bowling Green vs Eastern Kentucky | -7.5L57–59 | 57.0 | L57–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Bowling Green vs Marshall | +17.0W34–31 | 50.0 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Bowling Green at Mississippi State | +31.0L14–45 | 53.0 | L14–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Bowling Green at Akron | -9.0W31–28 | 49.5 | W31–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Bowling Green vs Buffalo | +2.0L7–38 | 55.5 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Bowling Green vs Miami (OH) | +7.0W17–13 | 45.0 | W17–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Bowling Green at Central Michigan | +5.5W34–18 | 51.0 | W34–18 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/2 | Bowling Green vs Western Michigan | -5.0W13–9 | 48.0 | W13–9 | U | N |
| Wed 11/9 | Bowling Green vs Kent State | +2.5L6–40 | 55.5 | L6–40 | U | N |
| Tue 11/15 | Bowling Green at Toledo | +14.5W42–35 | 47.0 | W42–35 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/22 | Bowling Green at Ohio | +5.5L14–38 | 52.5 | L14–38 | U | N |
| Mon 12/26 | Bowling Green vs New Mexico State | -3.0L19–24 | 51.0 | L19–24 | U | N |
Ohio 2022 Schedule
Ohio's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Ohio vs Florida Atlantic | +6.0W41–38 | 51.0 | W41–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Ohio at Penn State | +28.0L10–46 | 55.0 | L10–46 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Ohio at Iowa State | +20.0L10–43 | 48.0 | L10–43 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Ohio vs Fordham | -16.5W59–52 | 73.5 | W59–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Ohio at Kent State | +13.0L24–31 | 65.5 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Ohio vs Akron | -10.0W55–34 | 58.5 | W55–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Ohio at Western Michigan | +2.0W33–14 | 61.5 | W33–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Ohio vs Northern Illinois | +2.5W24–17 | 65.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/1 | Ohio vs Buffalo | +2.5W45–24 | 61.0 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/8 | Ohio at Miami (OH) | -2.5W37–21 | 52.0 | W37–21 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/15 | Ohio at Ball State | -3.5W32–18 | 57.5 | W32–18 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/22 | Ohio vs Bowling Green | -5.5W38–14 | 52.5 | W38–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | Ohio vs Toledo | +3.5L7–17 | 54.5 | L7–17 | U | N |
| Fri 12/30 | Ohio vs Wyoming | -3.0W30–27 | 43.0 | W30–27 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ohio Edge
Ohio +0.66
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ohio Edge
Ohio +17.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ohio
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Ohio
72.9 — 8.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ohio won by 24
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ohio with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
7–22 (24%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Terry Malone
Yr 2
#1
DC
Eric Lewis
Yr 2
#1
Ohio
Tim Albin #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Scott Isphording
Yr 1
#1
DC
Spence Nowinsky
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓