Sat, Sep 10 2022
·
Week 2
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🏟 Doyt Perry Stadium
Bowling Green, OH
·
Turf
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24,000 cap
Eastern Kentucky✈ 254 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Eastern Kentucky wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Bowling Green -7.5
O/U 57.0
consensus
Eastern Kentucky 2022 Schedule
Eastern Kentucky's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Eastern Kentucky at Eastern Michigan | +10.5L34–42 | 57.5 | L34–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Eastern Kentucky at Bowling Green | +7.5W59–57 | 57.0 | W59–57 | O | Y |
Bowling Green 2022 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Bowling Green at UCLA | +24.0L17–45 | 56.5 | L17–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Bowling Green vs Eastern Kentucky | -7.5L57–59 | 57.0 | L57–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Bowling Green vs Marshall | +17.0W34–31 | 50.0 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Bowling Green at Mississippi State | +31.0L14–45 | 53.0 | L14–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Bowling Green at Akron | -9.0W31–28 | 49.5 | W31–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Bowling Green vs Buffalo | +2.0L7–38 | 55.5 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Bowling Green vs Miami (OH) | +7.0W17–13 | 45.0 | W17–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Bowling Green at Central Michigan | +5.5W34–18 | 51.0 | W34–18 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/2 | Bowling Green vs Western Michigan | -5.0W13–9 | 48.0 | W13–9 | U | N |
| Wed 11/9 | Bowling Green vs Kent State | +2.5L6–40 | 55.5 | L6–40 | U | N |
| Tue 11/15 | Bowling Green at Toledo | +14.5W42–35 | 47.0 | W42–35 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/22 | Bowling Green at Ohio | +5.5L14–38 | 52.5 | L14–38 | U | N |
| Mon 12/26 | Bowling Green vs New Mexico State | -3.0L19–24 | 51.0 | L19–24 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Eastern Kentucky +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Eastern Kentucky Edge
Eastern Kentucky +3.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Bowling Green
2 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
Bowling Green
39.6 — 38.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Eastern Kentucky won by 2
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓