Buffalo at Massachusetts Week 7 College Football Matchup Buffalo at Massachusetts Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 15 2022 · Week 7 · 🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium Hadley, MA · Turf · 17,000 cap
Buffalo✈ 319 miSame TZ
Away
34 7
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Buffalo
34
Massachusetts
15
P&R Line Buffalo -18.5
P&R Total O/U 48.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Buffalo -17 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Buffalo has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Buffalo entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Buffalo wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Buffalo -17
O/U 47.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Buffalo · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Massachusetts 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Buffalo 2nd straight Road Game
Buffalo 2022 Schedule
Buffalo's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Buffalo at Maryland+24.0L10–3166.0L10–31UY
Sat 9/10Buffalo vs Holy Cross-6.0L31–3751.5L31–37ON
Sat 9/17Buffalo at Coastal Carolina+12.0L26–3860.0L26–38OY
Sat 9/24Buffalo at Eastern Michigan+6.5W50–3157.5W50–31OY
Sat 10/1Buffalo vs Miami (OH)-3.0W24–2050.0W24–20UY
Sat 10/8Buffalo at Bowling Green-2.0W38–755.5W38–7UY
Sat 10/15Buffalo at Massachusetts-17.0W34–747.5W34–7UY
Sat 10/22Buffalo vs Toledo+7.0W34–2756.0W34–27OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/1Buffalo at Ohio-2.5L24–4561.0L24–45ON
Wed 11/9Buffalo at Central Michigan+3.0L27–3154.0L27–31ON
Sat 11/19Buffalo vs Akron-14.043.5
Sat 11/26Buffalo vs Kent State-4.5L27–3051.0L27–30ON
Fri 12/2Buffalo vs Akron-12.0W23–2255.0W23–22UN
Tue 12/27Buffalo vs Georgia Southern+6.0W23–2167.0W23–21UY
Massachusetts 2022 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Massachusetts at Tulane+28.5L10–4259.0L10–42UN
Sat 9/10Massachusetts at Toledo+28.0L10–5549.0L10–55ON
Sat 9/17Massachusetts vs Stony Brook-1.0W20–344.5W20–3UY
Sat 9/24Massachusetts at Temple+10.0L0–2844.0L0–28UN
Sat 10/1Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan+20.0L13–2053.0L13–20UY
Sat 10/8Massachusetts vs Liberty+22.5L24–4245.5L24–42OY
Sat 10/15Massachusetts vs Buffalo+17.0L7–3447.5L7–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/29Massachusetts vs New Mexico State+1.0L13–2339.0L13–23UN
Fri 11/4Massachusetts at UConn+15.0L10–2739.5L10–27UN
Sat 11/12Massachusetts at Arkansas State+17.0L33–3549.0L33–35OY
Sat 11/19Massachusetts at Texas A&M+32.0L3–2046.0L3–20UY
Sat 11/26Massachusetts vs Army+20.0L7–4445.5L7–44ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Buffalo PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Buffalo
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Buffalo
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Buffalo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Buffalo
+0.364
Massachusetts
+0.284
Buffalo Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Buffalo
+0.619
Massachusetts
+0.366
Buffalo Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Buffalo
0.251
Massachusetts
0.197
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Buffalo Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Buffalo
+7.666
Massachusetts
+6.041
Buffalo Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Buffalo
+0.837
Massachusetts
+0.736
Buffalo Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Buffalo
70.5
Massachusetts
72.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Buffalo Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Buffalo Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Buffalo
-10.8
Massachusetts
-27.8
Offense Rating
Buffalo
7.6
Massachusetts
1.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Buffalo
18.3
Massachusetts
29.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Buffalo Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Buffalo #68
1.40
Massachusetts #121
0.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Buffalo #29
0.20
Massachusetts #125
2.60
Buffalo +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Buffalo Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Buffalo #1
41.4
Massachusetts #1
25.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Buffalo #71
41.5
Massachusetts #131
65.0
Buffalo +16.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Buffalo with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Buffalo
Maurice Linguist #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Shane Montgomery Yr 2 #1
DC Brandon Bailey Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Massachusetts
Don Brown #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Steve Casula Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Dudzinski Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself