Ohio at Miami (OH) Week 11 College Football Matchup Ohio at Miami (OH) Matchup - Week 11
Wed, Nov 9 2022 · Week 11 · 🏟 Yager Stadium Oxford, OH · Turf · 24,286 cap
Ohio✈ 141 miSame TZ
Away
37 21
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Ohio
28
Miami (OH)
23
P&R Line Ohio -5.5
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Ohio -2.5 · O/U 52.0
Matchup Prediction
Ohio has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Ohio entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Ohio wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Ohio wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Ohio -2.5
O/U 52.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ohio · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Miami (OH) Coming off BYE
Ohio 2022 Schedule
Ohio's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Ohio vs Florida Atlantic+6.0W41–3851.0W41–38OY
Sat 9/10Ohio at Penn State+28.0L10–4655.0L10–46ON
Sat 9/17Ohio at Iowa State+20.0L10–4348.0L10–43ON
Sat 9/24Ohio vs Fordham-16.5W59–5273.5W59–52ON
Sat 10/1Ohio at Kent State+13.0L24–3165.5L24–31UY
Sat 10/8Ohio vs Akron-10.0W55–3458.5W55–34OY
Sat 10/15Ohio at Western Michigan+2.0W33–1461.5W33–14UY
Sat 10/22Ohio vs Northern Illinois+2.5W24–1765.5W24–17UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/1Ohio vs Buffalo+2.5W45–2461.0W45–24OY
Tue 11/8Ohio at Miami (OH)-2.5W37–2152.0W37–21OY
Tue 11/15Ohio at Ball State-3.5W32–1857.5W32–18UY
Tue 11/22Ohio vs Bowling Green-5.5W38–1452.5W38–14UY
Sat 12/3Ohio vs Toledo+3.5L7–1754.5L7–17UN
Fri 12/30Ohio vs Wyoming-3.0W30–2743.0W30–27ON
Miami (OH) 2022 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Miami (OH) at Kentucky+15.0L13–3755.0L13–37UN
Sat 9/10Miami (OH) vs Robert Morris-30.0W31–1454.0W31–14UN
Sat 9/17Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati+24.0L17–3851.0L17–38OY
Sat 9/24Miami (OH) at Northwestern+7.5W17–1450.0W17–14UY
Sat 10/1Miami (OH) at Buffalo+3.0L20–2450.0L20–24UN
Sat 10/8Miami (OH) vs Kent State+5.0W27–2456.5W27–24UY
Sat 10/15Miami (OH) at Bowling Green-7.0L13–1745.0L13–17UN
Sat 10/22Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan-7.0L10–1644.0L10–16UN
Sat 10/29Miami (OH) at Akron-9.0W27–951.5W27–9UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/8Miami (OH) vs Ohio+2.5L21–3752.0L21–37ON
Wed 11/16Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois+1.0W29–2344.0W29–23OY
Tue 11/22Miami (OH) vs Ball State-2.5W18–1745.0W18–17UN
Fri 12/16Miami (OH) vs UAB+11.0L20–2444.5L20–24UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Ohio PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Ohio
+0.375
Miami (OH)
+0.319
Ohio Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Ohio
+0.700
Miami (OH)
+0.493
Ohio Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Ohio
0.182
Miami (OH)
0.235
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Ohio
+6.970
Miami (OH)
+7.132
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Ohio
+0.852
Miami (OH)
+0.805
Ohio Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Ohio
68.8
Miami (OH)
70.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Ohio Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Ohio
-10.4
Miami (OH)
0.7
Offense Rating
Ohio
7.5
Miami (OH)
14.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Ohio
17.8
Miami (OH)
14.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Ohio Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Ohio #89
1.00
Miami (OH) #105
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Ohio #81
1.13
Miami (OH) #8
0.22
Ohio +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Ohio Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Ohio #1
46.5
Miami (OH) #1
40.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Ohio #64
41.7
Miami (OH) #85
39.7
Ohio +5.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Ohio. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Ohio
Tim Albin #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Scott Isphording Yr 1 #1
DC Spence Nowinsky Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
39–52 (43%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Eric Koehler Yr 2 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself