Sat, Sep 10 2022
·
Week 2
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🏟 Yager Stadium
Oxford, OH
·
Turf
·
24,286 cap
Robert Morris✈ 248 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -30
O/U 54.0
consensus
Robert Morris 2022 Schedule
Robert Morris's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/10 | Robert Morris at Miami (OH) | +30.0L14–31 | 54.0 | L14–31 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Robert Morris at App State | +50.0L3–42 | 59.5 | L3–42 | U | Y |
Miami (OH) 2022 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Miami (OH) at Kentucky | +15.0L13–37 | 55.0 | L13–37 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Miami (OH) vs Robert Morris | -30.0W31–14 | 54.0 | W31–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati | +24.0L17–38 | 51.0 | L17–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Miami (OH) at Northwestern | +7.5W17–14 | 50.0 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Miami (OH) at Buffalo | +3.0L20–24 | 50.0 | L20–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Miami (OH) vs Kent State | +5.0W27–24 | 56.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Miami (OH) at Bowling Green | -7.0L13–17 | 45.0 | L13–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan | -7.0L10–16 | 44.0 | L10–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Miami (OH) at Akron | -9.0W27–9 | 51.5 | W27–9 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/8 | Miami (OH) vs Ohio | +2.5L21–37 | 52.0 | L21–37 | O | N |
| Wed 11/16 | Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois | +1.0W29–23 | 44.0 | W29–23 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/22 | Miami (OH) vs Ball State | -2.5W18–17 | 45.0 | W18–17 | U | N |
| Fri 12/16 | Miami (OH) vs UAB | +11.0L20–24 | 44.5 | L20–24 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Robert Morris Edge
Robert Morris +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Robert Morris Edge
Robert Morris +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami (OH)
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Miami (OH)
60.8 — 18.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Miami (OH) won by 17
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Miami (OH), but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓