Sat, Oct 29 2022
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Summa Field at InfoCision Stadium
Akron, OH
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 200 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Miami (OH)
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Miami (OH) entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Miami (OH) wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -9
O/U 51.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Miami (OH)
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Miami (OH) 2022 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Miami (OH) at Kentucky | +15.0L13–37 | 55.0 | L13–37 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Miami (OH) vs Robert Morris | -30.0W31–14 | 54.0 | W31–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati | +24.0L17–38 | 51.0 | L17–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Miami (OH) at Northwestern | +7.5W17–14 | 50.0 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Miami (OH) at Buffalo | +3.0L20–24 | 50.0 | L20–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Miami (OH) vs Kent State | +5.0W27–24 | 56.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Miami (OH) at Bowling Green | -7.0L13–17 | 45.0 | L13–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan | -7.0L10–16 | 44.0 | L10–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Miami (OH) at Akron | -9.0W27–9 | 51.5 | W27–9 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/8 | Miami (OH) vs Ohio | +2.5L21–37 | 52.0 | L21–37 | O | N |
| Wed 11/16 | Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois | +1.0W29–23 | 44.0 | W29–23 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/22 | Miami (OH) vs Ball State | -2.5W18–17 | 45.0 | W18–17 | U | N |
| Fri 12/16 | Miami (OH) vs UAB | +11.0L20–24 | 44.5 | L20–24 | U | Y |
Akron 2022 Schedule
Akron's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Akron vs St. Francis (PA) | -12 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/10 | Akron at Michigan State | +34.5L0–52 | 56.0 | L0–52 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Akron at Tennessee | +47.5L6–63 | 67.0 | L6–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Akron at Liberty | +26.5L12–21 | 52.5 | L12–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Akron vs Bowling Green | +9.0L28–31 | 49.5 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Akron at Ohio | +10.0L34–55 | 58.5 | L34–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Akron vs Central Michigan | +12.0L21–28 | 60.5 | L21–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Akron at Kent State | +16.0L27–33 | 65.0 | L27–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Akron vs Miami (OH) | +9.0L9–27 | 51.5 | L9–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/8 | Akron vs Eastern Michigan | +6.5L28–34 | 57.0 | L28–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Akron at Buffalo | +14.0 | 43.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/26 | Akron at Northern Illinois | +9.5W44–12 | 51.5 | W44–12 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/2 | Akron at Buffalo | +12.0L22–23 | 55.0 | L22–23 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +23.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Miami (OH) with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
39–52 (43%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Eric Koehler
Yr 2
#1
DC
Bill Brechin
Yr 1
#1
Akron
Joe Moorhead #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Joe Moorhead
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Tibesar
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓