Memphis at Utah State Week 1 College Football Matchup Memphis at Utah State Matchup - Week 1
Tue, Dec 27 2022 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Gerald J. Ford Stadium University Park, TX · Turf · 32,000 cap
Memphis✈ 420 miSame TZ Utah State✈ 1,027 mi+1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
38 10
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Memphis
39
Utah State
19
P&R Line Memphis -20
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Memphis -8 · O/U 57.0
Matchup Prediction
Memphis has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Memphis entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Memphis wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Memphis wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Memphis -8
O/U 57.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Memphis · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Memphis 2nd straight Road Game
Memphis 2022 Schedule
Memphis's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Memphis at Mississippi State+17.0L23–4958.0L23–49ON
Sat 9/10Memphis at Navy-4.5W37–1347.5W37–13OY
Sat 9/17Memphis vs Arkansas State-14.5W44–3264.0W44–32ON
Sat 9/24Memphis vs North Texas-13.0W44–3468.5W44–34ON
Sat 10/1Memphis vs Temple-18.5W24–350.0W24–3UY
Fri 10/7Memphis vs Houston-1.5L32–3357.5L32–33ON
Sat 10/15Memphis at East Carolina+5.5L45–4762.5L45–47OY
Sat 10/22Memphis at Tulane+7.0L28–3855.5L28–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/5Memphis vs UCF+3.0L28–3560.5L28–35ON
Thu 11/10Memphis vs Tulsa-7.0W26–1062.0W26–10UY
Sat 11/19Memphis vs North Alabama-36.0W59–067.5W59–0UY
Sat 11/26Memphis at SMU+4.5L31–3469.0L31–34UY
Tue 12/27Memphis vs Utah State-8.0W38–1057.0W38–10UY
Utah State 2022 Schedule
Utah State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27Utah State vs UConn-24.0W31–2059.0W31–20UN
Sat 9/3Utah State at Alabama+42.0L0–5563.0L0–55UN
Sat 9/10Utah State vs Weber State-6.5L7–3559.5L7–35UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/24Utah State vs UNLV+3.0L24–3461.5L24–34UN
Thu 9/29Utah State at BYU+26.0L26–3860.0L26–38OY
Sat 10/8Utah State vs Air Force+11.5W34–2754.0W34–27OY
Sat 10/15Utah State at Colorado State-14.0W17–1345.5W17–13UN
Sat 10/22Utah State at Wyoming+5.0L14–2844.5L14–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/5Utah State vs New Mexico-14.5W27–1042.5W27–10UY
Sat 11/12Utah State at Hawai'i-10.0W41–3455.0W41–34ON
Sat 11/19Utah State vs San José State-1.0W35–3151.0W35–31OY
Fri 11/25Utah State at Boise State+17.0L23–4251.5L23–42ON
Tue 12/27Utah State vs Memphis+8.0L10–3857.0L10–38UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Memphis PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Memphis
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Memphis
+0.377
Utah State
+0.251
Memphis Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Memphis
+0.566
Utah State
+0.427
Memphis Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Memphis
0.139
Utah State
0.170
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Utah State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Memphis
+8.215
Utah State
+7.488
Memphis Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Memphis
+0.855
Utah State
+0.809
Memphis Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Memphis
68.7
Utah State
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Memphis Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Memphis Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Memphis
3.2
Utah State
-8.3
Offense Rating
Memphis
16.9
Utah State
10.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Memphis
13.7
Utah State
18.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Memphis Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Memphis #31
1.50
Utah State #108
0.55
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Memphis #26
0.50
Utah State #150
1.18
Memphis +0.95
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Memphis Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Memphis #1
55.1
Utah State #1
36.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Memphis #45
32.5
Utah State #108
53.5
Memphis +18.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Memphis with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Memphis
Ryan Silverfield #1
14–10 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Tim Cramsey Yr 1 #1
DC Matt Barnes Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Utah State
Blake Anderson #1
11–3 (79%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Anthony Tucker Yr 2 #1
DC Ephraim Banda Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself