Sat, Sep 10 2022
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Mackay Stadium
Reno, NV
·
Turf
·
26,000 cap
Incarnate Word✈ 1,395 mi-2 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Nevada wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Nevada -4
O/U 61.5
consensus
Incarnate Word 2022 Schedule
Incarnate Word's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/10 | Incarnate Word at Nevada | +4.0W55–41 | 61.5 | W55–41 | O | Y |
Nevada 2022 Schedule
Nevada's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Nevada at New Mexico State | -7.0W23–12 | 48.0 | W23–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/3 | Nevada vs Texas State | +2.0W38–14 | 51.5 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Nevada vs Incarnate Word | -4.0L41–55 | 61.5 | L41–55 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Nevada at Iowa | +24.0L0–27 | 39.0 | L0–27 | U | N |
| Fri 9/23 | Nevada at Air Force | +24.0L20–48 | 47.0 | L20–48 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/7 | Nevada vs Colorado State | -3.5L14–17 | 44.0 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Nevada at Hawai'i | -6.5L16–31 | 51.5 | L16–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Nevada vs San Diego State | +7.5L7–23 | 36.0 | L7–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Nevada at San José State | +24.5L28–35 | 44.5 | L28–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/12 | Nevada vs Boise State | +21.0L3–41 | 47.0 | L3–41 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Nevada vs Fresno State | +22.5L14–41 | 54.0 | L14–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Nevada at UNLV | +12.5L22–27 | 49.0 | L22–27 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Incarnate Word Edge
Incarnate Word +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Nevada Edge
Nevada +26.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓