Matchup Prediction
UNLV
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
UNLV entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
UNLV wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
UNLV wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
UNLV -12.5
O/U 49.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → UNLV
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Nevada 2022 Schedule
Nevada's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Nevada at New Mexico State | -7.0W23–12 | 48.0 | W23–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/3 | Nevada vs Texas State | +2.0W38–14 | 51.5 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Nevada vs Incarnate Word | -4.0L41–55 | 61.5 | L41–55 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Nevada at Iowa | +24.0L0–27 | 39.0 | L0–27 | U | N |
| Fri 9/23 | Nevada at Air Force | +24.0L20–48 | 47.0 | L20–48 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/7 | Nevada vs Colorado State | -3.5L14–17 | 44.0 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Nevada at Hawai'i | -6.5L16–31 | 51.5 | L16–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Nevada vs San Diego State | +7.5L7–23 | 36.0 | L7–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Nevada at San José State | +24.5L28–35 | 44.5 | L28–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/12 | Nevada vs Boise State | +21.0L3–41 | 47.0 | L3–41 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Nevada vs Fresno State | +22.5L14–41 | 54.0 | L14–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Nevada at UNLV | +12.5L22–27 | 49.0 | L22–27 | U | Y |
UNLV 2022 Schedule
UNLV's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | UNLV vs Idaho State | -23.0W52–21 | 50.0 | W52–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | UNLV at California | +12.0L14–20 | 49.5 | L14–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | UNLV vs North Texas | -2.5W58–27 | 62.5 | W58–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | UNLV at Utah State | -3.0W34–24 | 61.5 | W34–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/30 | UNLV vs New Mexico | -14.0W31–20 | 44.0 | W31–20 | O | N |
| Fri 10/7 | UNLV at San José State | +6.5L7–40 | 51.5 | L7–40 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | UNLV vs Air Force | +10.0L7–42 | 50.0 | L7–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | UNLV at Notre Dame | +26.0L21–44 | 46.5 | L21–44 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | UNLV at San Diego State | +5.0L10–14 | 47.0 | L10–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/11 | UNLV vs Fresno State | +9.0L30–37 | 61.5 | L30–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | UNLV at Hawai'i | -11.0L25–31 | 56.5 | L25–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | UNLV vs Nevada | -12.5W27–22 | 49.0 | W27–22 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UNLV
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UNLV Edge
UNLV +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UNLV Edge
UNLV +13.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Nevada
1 — 3 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UNLV
71.9 — 15.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
UNLV won by 5
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on UNLV with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Nevada
Ken Wilson #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Derek Sage
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kwame Agyeman
Yr 1
#1
UNLV
Marcus Arroyo #1
2–16 (11%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Nick Holz
Yr 1
#1
DC
Keith Heyward
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓