Sat, Oct 15 2022
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Lane Stadium
Blacksburg, VA
·
Turf
·
66,233 cap
Miami✈ 778 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Miami,
while Game Control favors Virginia Tech.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Miami wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Virginia Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Miami -9
O/U 48.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Miami
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Miami 2022 Schedule
Miami's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Miami vs Bethune-Cookman | -49.5W70–13 | 60.5 | W70–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Miami vs Southern Miss | -27.5W30–7 | 51.0 | W30–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Miami at Texas A&M | +6.5L9–17 | 45.5 | L9–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Miami vs Middle Tennessee | -25.5L31–45 | 53.5 | L31–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/8 | Miami vs North Carolina | -4.0L24–27 | 67.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Miami at Virginia Tech | -9.0W20–14 | 48.5 | W20–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Miami vs Duke | -10.0L21–45 | 59.0 | L21–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Miami at Virginia | -3.0W14–12 | 48.5 | W14–12 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Miami vs Florida State | +6.5L3–45 | 54.0 | L3–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Miami at Georgia Tech | +2.0W35–14 | 43.5 | W35–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Miami at Clemson | +19.0L10–40 | 47.5 | L10–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Miami vs Pittsburgh | +5.5L16–42 | 43.0 | L16–42 | O | N |
Virginia Tech 2022 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Virginia Tech at Old Dominion | -6.0L17–20 | 48.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Virginia Tech vs Boston College | -2.5W27–10 | 45.0 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Virginia Tech vs Wofford | -39.0W27–7 | 45.0 | W27–7 | U | N |
| Thu 9/22 | Virginia Tech vs West Virginia | +2.0L10–33 | 49.5 | L10–33 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Virginia Tech at North Carolina | +9.5L10–41 | 57.0 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh | +14.5L29–45 | 42.0 | L29–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Virginia Tech vs Miami | +9.0L14–20 | 48.5 | L14–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/27 | Virginia Tech at NC State | +13.0L21–22 | 39.0 | L21–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech | -4.0L27–28 | 40.5 | L27–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Virginia Tech at Duke | +10.0L7–24 | 50.0 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Virginia Tech at Liberty | +10.5W23–22 | 46.0 | W23–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Virginia Tech vs Virginia | -1.5 | 40.0 | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Miami
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Miami Edge
Miami +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Virginia Tech Edge
Virginia Tech +9.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Josh Gattis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kevin Steele
Yr 1
#1
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Tyler Bowen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Chris Marve
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓