Sat, Oct 29 2022
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Georgia State Stadium
Atlanta, GA
·
Turf
·
24,333 cap
Old Dominion✈ 505 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Georgia State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Georgia State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Georgia State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Georgia State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Georgia State -3.5
O/U 53.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Georgia State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Old Dominion 2022 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech | +6.0W20–17 | 48.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Old Dominion at East Carolina | +13.0L21–39 | 49.5 | L21–39 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Old Dominion at Virginia | +8.0L14–16 | 52.5 | L14–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Old Dominion vs Arkansas State | -5.0W29–26 | 55.5 | W29–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Old Dominion vs Liberty | +3.5L24–38 | 48.0 | L24–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina | +11.0W49–21 | 58.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern | -1.5L23–28 | 66.0 | L23–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Old Dominion at Georgia State | +3.5L17–31 | 53.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Old Dominion vs Marshall | +3.5L0–12 | 46.5 | L0–12 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Old Dominion vs James Madison | +7.5L3–37 | 48.0 | L3–37 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Old Dominion at App State | +16.5L14–27 | 50.5 | L14–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Old Dominion at South Alabama | +16.5L20–27 | 47.0 | L20–27 | U | Y |
Georgia State 2022 Schedule
Georgia State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Georgia State at South Carolina | +12.5L14–35 | 55.0 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Georgia State vs North Carolina | +7.0L28–35 | 64.0 | L28–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Georgia State vs Charlotte | -19.5L41–42 | 64.0 | L41–42 | O | N |
| Thu 9/22 | Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina | +2.5L24–41 | 63.5 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Georgia State at Army | +8.5W31–14 | 54.0 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Georgia State vs Georgia Southern | -2.5W41–33 | 67.5 | W41–33 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/19 | Georgia State at App State | +9.5L17–42 | 60.5 | L17–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Georgia State vs Old Dominion | -3.5W31–17 | 53.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Georgia State at Southern Miss | +2.0W42–14 | 47.5 | W42–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Georgia State vs UL Monroe | -13.5L28–31 | 59.5 | L28–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Georgia State at James Madison | +10.0L40–42 | 51.5 | L40–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Georgia State at Marshall | +6.5L23–28 | 45.5 | L23–28 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia State Edge
Georgia State +0.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia State Edge
Georgia State +15.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia State
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Georgia State
53.1 — 14.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Georgia State won by 14
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
6–7 (46%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Dave Patenaude
Yr 1
#1
DC
Blake Seiler
Yr 2
#1
Georgia State
Shawn Elliott #1
30–30 (50%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Trent McKnight
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nate Fuqua
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓