Wed, Dec 28 2022
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Chase Field
Phoenix, AZ
·
Turf
·
48,519 cap
Wisconsin✈ 1,391 mi-2 hr TZ
Oklahoma State✈ 870 mi-2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Oklahoma State,
while Game Control favors Wisconsin.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Oklahoma State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Wisconsin wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Wisconsin -5
O/U 45.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Wisconsin
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Wisconsin 2022 Schedule
Wisconsin's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Wisconsin vs Illinois State | -36.5W38–0 | 42.5 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Wisconsin vs Washington State | -17.5L14–17 | 48.5 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Wisconsin vs New Mexico State | -38.0W66–7 | 45.5 | W66–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Wisconsin at Ohio State | +19.0L21–52 | 56.5 | L21–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Wisconsin vs Illinois | -6.5L10–34 | 43.0 | L10–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Wisconsin at Northwestern | -10.0W42–7 | 44.5 | W42–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Wisconsin at Michigan State | -7.0L28–34 | 49.5 | L28–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Wisconsin vs Purdue | -1.5W35–24 | 51.5 | W35–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Wisconsin vs Maryland | -5.0W23–10 | 47.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Wisconsin at Iowa | +1.0L10–24 | 35.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Wisconsin at Nebraska | -10.0W15–14 | 40.5 | W15–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Wisconsin vs Minnesota | -3.0L16–23 | 37.0 | L16–23 | O | N |
| Tue 12/27 | Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State | -5.0W24–17 | 45.0 | W24–17 | U | Y |
Oklahoma State 2022 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Oklahoma State vs Central Michigan | -20.5W58–44 | 58.0 | W58–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Oklahoma State vs Arizona State | -12.0W34–17 | 58.5 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Oklahoma State vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -54.5W63–7 | 64.5 | W63–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/1 | Oklahoma State at Baylor | +2.5W36–25 | 56.0 | W36–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech | -11.0W41–31 | 66.0 | W41–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Oklahoma State at TCU | +5.0L40–43 | 69.5 | L40–43 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Oklahoma State vs Texas | +6.5W41–34 | 58.5 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Oklahoma State at Kansas State | +2.5L0–48 | 57.5 | L0–48 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Oklahoma State at Kansas | +3.0L16–37 | 59.5 | L16–37 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Oklahoma State vs Iowa State | +2.5W20–14 | 47.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Oklahoma State at Oklahoma | +7.0L13–28 | 67.5 | L13–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Oklahoma State vs West Virginia | -5.5L19–24 | 59.5 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Tue 12/27 | Oklahoma State vs Wisconsin | +5.0L17–24 | 45.0 | L17–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Wisconsin
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Wisconsin
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wisconsin
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oklahoma State Edge
Oklahoma State +0.64
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wisconsin Edge
Wisconsin +14.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Wisconsin
13.6 — 70.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Wisconsin won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Wisconsin
Paul Chryst #1
65–23 (74%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Bobby Engram
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jim Leonhard
Yr 2
#1
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
149–69 (68%)
· Yr 18 at school
OC
Kasey Dunn
Yr 2
#1
DC
Derek Mason
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓