Sat, Sep 24 2022
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Ohio Stadium
Columbus, OH
·
Turf
·
104,944 cap
Wisconsin✈ 392 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Ohio State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ohio State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Ohio State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Ohio State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Ohio State -19
O/U 56.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ohio State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Wisconsin 2022 Schedule
Wisconsin's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Wisconsin vs Illinois State | -36.5W38–0 | 42.5 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Wisconsin vs Washington State | -17.5L14–17 | 48.5 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Wisconsin vs New Mexico State | -38.0W66–7 | 45.5 | W66–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Wisconsin at Ohio State | +19.0L21–52 | 56.5 | L21–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Wisconsin vs Illinois | -6.5L10–34 | 43.0 | L10–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Wisconsin at Northwestern | -10.0W42–7 | 44.5 | W42–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Wisconsin at Michigan State | -7.0L28–34 | 49.5 | L28–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Wisconsin vs Purdue | -1.5W35–24 | 51.5 | W35–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Wisconsin vs Maryland | -5.0W23–10 | 47.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Wisconsin at Iowa | +1.0L10–24 | 35.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Wisconsin at Nebraska | -10.0W15–14 | 40.5 | W15–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Wisconsin vs Minnesota | -3.0L16–23 | 37.0 | L16–23 | O | N |
| Tue 12/27 | Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State | -5.0W24–17 | 45.0 | W24–17 | U | Y |
Ohio State 2022 Schedule
Ohio State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Ohio State vs Notre Dame | -17.0W21–10 | 58.5 | W21–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Ohio State vs Arkansas State | -44.5W45–12 | 68.5 | W45–12 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Ohio State vs Toledo | -34.5W77–21 | 63.0 | W77–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Ohio State vs Wisconsin | -19.0W52–21 | 56.5 | W52–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Ohio State vs Rutgers | -39.0W49–10 | 58.0 | W49–10 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Ohio State at Michigan State | -27.0W49–20 | 64.5 | W49–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Ohio State vs Iowa | -29.5W54–10 | 50.0 | W54–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Ohio State at Penn State | -15.5W44–31 | 60.5 | W44–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Ohio State at Northwestern | -37.5W21–7 | 55.0 | W21–7 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Ohio State vs Indiana | -40.0W56–14 | 62.0 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Ohio State at Maryland | -26.5W43–30 | 62.5 | W43–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Ohio State vs Michigan | -9.0L23–45 | 56.0 | L23–45 | O | N |
| Sat 12/31 | Ohio State vs Georgia | +5.5L41–42 | 62.0 | L41–42 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ohio State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ohio State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ohio State Edge
Ohio State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ohio State Edge
Ohio State +1.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ohio State
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Ohio State
98.6 — 0.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ohio State won by 31
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ohio State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Wisconsin
Paul Chryst #1
65–23 (74%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Bobby Engram
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jim Leonhard
Yr 2
#1
Ohio State
Ryan Day #1
34–4 (90%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Kevin Wilson
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jim Knowles
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓