Sat, Sep 3 2022
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Week 1
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🏟 Camp Randall Stadium
Madison, WI
·
Turf
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80,321 cap
Illinois State✈ 178 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Wisconsin wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Wisconsin -36.5
O/U 42.5
consensus
Illinois State 2022 Schedule
Illinois State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Illinois State at Wisconsin | +36.5L0–38 | 42.5 | L0–38 | U | N |
Wisconsin 2022 Schedule
Wisconsin's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Wisconsin vs Illinois State | -36.5W38–0 | 42.5 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Wisconsin vs Washington State | -17.5L14–17 | 48.5 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Wisconsin vs New Mexico State | -38.0W66–7 | 45.5 | W66–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Wisconsin at Ohio State | +19.0L21–52 | 56.5 | L21–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Wisconsin vs Illinois | -6.5L10–34 | 43.0 | L10–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Wisconsin at Northwestern | -10.0W42–7 | 44.5 | W42–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Wisconsin at Michigan State | -7.0L28–34 | 49.5 | L28–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Wisconsin vs Purdue | -1.5W35–24 | 51.5 | W35–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Wisconsin vs Maryland | -5.0W23–10 | 47.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Wisconsin at Iowa | +1.0L10–24 | 35.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Wisconsin at Nebraska | -10.0W15–14 | 40.5 | W15–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Wisconsin vs Minnesota | -3.0L16–23 | 37.0 | L16–23 | O | N |
| Tue 12/27 | Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State | -5.0W24–17 | 45.0 | W24–17 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Illinois State Edge
Illinois State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wisconsin Edge
Wisconsin +65.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓