Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Auburn,
while Game Control favors LSU.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Auburn wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
LSU wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
LSU -2.5
O/U 57.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Auburn
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Auburn 2021 Schedule
Auburn's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Auburn vs Akron | -37.5W60–10 | 56.5 | W60–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Auburn vs Alabama State | -49.5W62–0 | 60.0 | W62–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Auburn at Penn State | +4.0L20–28 | 53.0 | L20–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Auburn vs Georgia State | -27.5W34–24 | 57.5 | W34–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Auburn at LSU | +2.5W24–19 | 57.0 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Auburn vs Georgia | +14.5L10–34 | 45.5 | L10–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Auburn at Arkansas | +4.5W38–23 | 54.0 | W38–23 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Auburn vs Ole Miss | -3.0W31–20 | 67.5 | W31–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Auburn at Texas A&M | +4.5L3–20 | 49.5 | L3–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Auburn vs Mississippi State | -6.0L34–43 | 51.0 | L34–43 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Auburn at South Carolina | -7.0L17–21 | 45.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Auburn vs Alabama | +21.0L22–24 | 57.5 | L22–24 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/28 | Auburn vs Houston | -2.0L13–17 | 51.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
LSU 2021 Schedule
LSU's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | LSU at UCLA | -2.0L27–38 | 64.0 | L27–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | LSU vs McNeese | -39.0W34–7 | 66.0 | W34–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | LSU vs Central Michigan | -19.5W49–21 | 61.0 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | LSU at Mississippi State | -1.5W28–25 | 54.5 | W28–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | LSU vs Auburn | -2.5L19–24 | 57.0 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | LSU at Kentucky | +2.0L21–42 | 50.5 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | LSU vs Florida | +12.5W49–42 | 61.0 | W49–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | LSU at Ole Miss | +9.0L17–31 | 76.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | LSU at Alabama | +29.5L14–20 | 66.5 | L14–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | LSU vs Arkansas | +3.0L13–16 | 59.5 | L13–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | LSU vs UL Monroe | -29.0W27–14 | 57.5 | W27–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | LSU vs Texas A&M | +6.0W27–24 | 47.0 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Tue 1/4 | LSU vs Kansas State | +9.5L20–42 | 47.0 | L20–42 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Auburn
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Auburn
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Auburn
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Auburn Edge
Auburn +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
LSU Edge
LSU +8.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
LSU
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
LSU
69.2 — 16.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Auburn won by 5
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Auburn
Bryan Harsin #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Mike Bobo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Derek Mason
Yr 1
#1
LSU
Ed Orgeron #1
47–15 (76%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Jake Peetz
Yr 1
#1
DC
Daronte Jones
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓