Matchup Prediction
Alabama
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Alabama entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Alabama wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Alabama wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Alabama -29.5
O/U 66.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Alabama
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
LSU 2021 Schedule
LSU's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | LSU at UCLA | -2.0L27–38 | 64.0 | L27–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | LSU vs McNeese | -39.0W34–7 | 66.0 | W34–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | LSU vs Central Michigan | -19.5W49–21 | 61.0 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | LSU at Mississippi State | -1.5W28–25 | 54.5 | W28–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | LSU vs Auburn | -2.5L19–24 | 57.0 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | LSU at Kentucky | +2.0L21–42 | 50.5 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | LSU vs Florida | +12.5W49–42 | 61.0 | W49–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | LSU at Ole Miss | +9.0L17–31 | 76.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | LSU at Alabama | +29.5L14–20 | 66.5 | L14–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | LSU vs Arkansas | +3.0L13–16 | 59.5 | L13–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | LSU vs UL Monroe | -29.0W27–14 | 57.5 | W27–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | LSU vs Texas A&M | +6.0W27–24 | 47.0 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Tue 1/4 | LSU vs Kansas State | +9.5L20–42 | 47.0 | L20–42 | O | N |
Alabama 2021 Schedule
Alabama's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Alabama vs Miami | -19.5W44–13 | 61.5 | W44–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Alabama vs Mercer | -54.0W48–14 | 60.5 | W48–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Alabama at Florida | -14.0W31–29 | 59.5 | W31–29 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Alabama vs Southern Miss | -45.0W63–14 | 57.5 | W63–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Alabama vs Ole Miss | -15.0W42–21 | 79.5 | W42–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Alabama at Texas A&M | -18.5L38–41 | 50.5 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Alabama at Mississippi State | -17.5W49–9 | 59.5 | W49–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Alabama vs Tennessee | -24.5W52–24 | 68.0 | W52–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | Alabama vs LSU | -29.5W20–14 | 66.5 | W20–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Alabama vs New Mexico State | -50.0W59–3 | 67.0 | W59–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Alabama vs Arkansas | -20.5W42–35 | 58.5 | W42–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Alabama at Auburn | -21.0W24–22 | 57.5 | W24–22 | U | N |
| Sat 12/4 | Alabama vs Georgia | +6.0W41–24 | 48.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/31 | Alabama vs Cincinnati | -13.0W27–6 | 57.5 | W27–6 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/10 | Alabama vs Georgia | +3.0L18–33 | 53.5 | L18–33 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Alabama
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Alabama
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +1.71
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +32.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Alabama
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Alabama
82.1 — 9.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Alabama won by 6
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Alabama with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
LSU
Ed Orgeron #1
47–15 (76%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Jake Peetz
Yr 1
#1
DC
Daronte Jones
Yr 1
#1
Alabama
Nick Saban #1
167–23 (88%)
· Yr 15 at school
OC
Bill O'Brien
Yr 1
#1
DC
Pete Golding
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓