Sat, Sep 18 2021
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Husky Stadium
Seattle, WA
·
Turf
·
70,500 cap
Arkansas State✈ 1,806 mi-2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Arkansas State,
while Game Control favors Washington.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Arkansas State wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
Washington wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Washington -17.5
O/U 58.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Washington
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas State 2021 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas | -13.5W40–21 | 64.0 | W40–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Arkansas State vs Memphis | +5.5L50–55 | 65.0 | L50–55 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Arkansas State at Washington | +17.5L3–52 | 58.5 | L3–52 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Arkansas State at Tulsa | +14.5L34–41 | 65.0 | L34–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Arkansas State at Georgia Southern | +1.5L33–59 | 66.5 | L33–59 | O | N |
| Thu 10/7 | Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina | +20.5L20–52 | 74.5 | L20–52 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/21 | Arkansas State vs Louisiana | +17.0L27–28 | 70.0 | L27–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Arkansas State at South Alabama | +9.5L13–31 | 67.0 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Arkansas State vs App State | +21.5L14–48 | 67.5 | L14–48 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Arkansas State at UL Monroe | +3.0W27–24 | 66.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Arkansas State at Georgia State | +15.5L20–28 | 66.0 | L20–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Arkansas State vs Texas State | -2.0L22–24 | 62.0 | L22–24 | U | N |
Washington 2021 Schedule
Washington's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Washington vs Montana | -22.5L7–13 | 54.0 | L7–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Washington at Michigan | +6.5L10–31 | 47.5 | L10–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Washington vs Arkansas State | -17.5W52–3 | 58.5 | W52–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Washington vs California | -7.5W31–24 | 47.5 | W31–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Washington at Oregon State | +2.5L24–27 | 57.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Washington vs UCLA | -1.5L17–24 | 55.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Fri 10/22 | Washington at Arizona | -17.5W21–16 | 45.5 | W21–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Washington at Stanford | +2.5W20–13 | 45.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Washington vs Oregon | +7.0L16–26 | 48.0 | L16–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Washington vs Arizona State | +6.0L30–35 | 45.5 | L30–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Washington at Colorado | -6.5L17–20 | 43.0 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Washington vs Washington State | -1.0L13–40 | 45.0 | L13–40 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Washington
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington Edge
Washington +3.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Washington
4 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Washington
97.0 — 1.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Washington won by 49
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 1
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 1
#1
Washington
Jimmy Lake #1
4–3 (57%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
John Donovan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ikaika Malloe
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓