Sat, Sep 11 2021
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Centennial Bank Stadium
Jonesboro, AR
·
Turf
·
30,964 cap
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Memphis wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Memphis -5.5
O/U 65.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Memphis
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Memphis 2021 Schedule
Memphis's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Memphis vs Nicholls | -22.5W42–17 | 68.0 | W42–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Memphis at Arkansas State | -5.5W55–50 | 65.0 | W55–50 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Memphis vs Mississippi State | +3.0W31–29 | 63.0 | W31–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Memphis vs UTSA | -3.0L28–31 | 66.5 | L28–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Memphis at Temple | -11.0L31–34 | 58.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Memphis at Tulsa | +3.0L29–35 | 60.5 | L29–35 | O | N |
| Thu 10/14 | Memphis vs Navy | -11.0W35–17 | 55.5 | W35–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/22 | Memphis at UCF | +1.5L7–24 | 63.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | Memphis vs SMU | +3.5W28–25 | 72.0 | W28–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Memphis vs East Carolina | -4.0L29–30 | 58.5 | L29–30 | O | N |
| Fri 11/19 | Memphis at Houston | +9.0L13–31 | 59.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Memphis vs Tulane | -5.5W33–28 | 58.0 | W33–28 | O | N |
| Fri 12/24 | Memphis at Hawai'i | -10.0 | 56.0 | — | — | — |
Arkansas State 2021 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas | -13.5W40–21 | 64.0 | W40–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Arkansas State vs Memphis | +5.5L50–55 | 65.0 | L50–55 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Arkansas State at Washington | +17.5L3–52 | 58.5 | L3–52 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Arkansas State at Tulsa | +14.5L34–41 | 65.0 | L34–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Arkansas State at Georgia Southern | +1.5L33–59 | 66.5 | L33–59 | O | N |
| Thu 10/7 | Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina | +20.5L20–52 | 74.5 | L20–52 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/21 | Arkansas State vs Louisiana | +17.0L27–28 | 70.0 | L27–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Arkansas State at South Alabama | +9.5L13–31 | 67.0 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Arkansas State vs App State | +21.5L14–48 | 67.5 | L14–48 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Arkansas State at UL Monroe | +3.0W27–24 | 66.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Arkansas State at Georgia State | +15.5L20–28 | 66.0 | L20–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Arkansas State vs Texas State | -2.0L22–24 | 62.0 | L22–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Memphis
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Memphis Edge
Memphis +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Memphis Edge
Memphis +22.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Memphis
4.8 — 94.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Memphis won by 5
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Memphis
Ryan Silverfield #1
11–4 (73%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Kevin Johns
Yr 1
#1
DC
Mike MacIntyre
Yr 1
#1
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 1
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓