Sat, Nov 13 2021
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Malone Stadium
Monroe, LA
·
Turf
·
30,427 cap
Arkansas State✈ 242 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Arkansas State,
while Game Control favors UL Monroe.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arkansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
UL Monroe wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Louisiana Monroe -3
O/U 66.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arkansas State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas State 2021 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas | -13.5W40–21 | 64.0 | W40–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Arkansas State vs Memphis | +5.5L50–55 | 65.0 | L50–55 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Arkansas State at Washington | +17.5L3–52 | 58.5 | L3–52 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Arkansas State at Tulsa | +14.5L34–41 | 65.0 | L34–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Arkansas State at Georgia Southern | +1.5L33–59 | 66.5 | L33–59 | O | N |
| Thu 10/7 | Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina | +20.5L20–52 | 74.5 | L20–52 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/21 | Arkansas State vs Louisiana | +17.0L27–28 | 70.0 | L27–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Arkansas State at South Alabama | +9.5L13–31 | 67.0 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Arkansas State vs App State | +21.5L14–48 | 67.5 | L14–48 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Arkansas State at UL Monroe | +3.0W27–24 | 66.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Arkansas State at Georgia State | +15.5L20–28 | 66.0 | L20–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Arkansas State vs Texas State | -2.0L22–24 | 62.0 | L22–24 | U | N |
UL Monroe 2021 Schedule
UL Monroe's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | UL Monroe at Kentucky | +31.0L10–45 | 54.0 | L10–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/18 | UL Monroe vs Jackson State | -4.5W12–7 | 52.0 | W12–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | UL Monroe vs Troy | +23.5W29–16 | 49.5 | W29–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina | +33.5L6–59 | 57.5 | L6–59 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | UL Monroe vs Georgia State | +16.0L21–55 | 49.5 | L21–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | UL Monroe vs Liberty | +32.5W31–28 | 57.0 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | UL Monroe vs South Alabama | +13.5W41–31 | 51.5 | W41–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | UL Monroe at App State | +26.5L28–59 | 57.5 | L28–59 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | UL Monroe at Texas State | +3.0L19–27 | 57.5 | L19–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | UL Monroe vs Arkansas State | -3.0L24–27 | 66.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | UL Monroe at LSU | +29.0L14–27 | 57.5 | L14–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | UL Monroe at Louisiana | +21.5L16–21 | 56.0 | L16–21 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arkansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UL Monroe Edge
UL Monroe +6.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UL Monroe
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arkansas State
37.0 — 43.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Arkansas State won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 1
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 1
#1
UL Monroe
Terry Bowden #1
1–1 (50%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rich Rodriguez
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Alley
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓