East Carolina at UCF Week 6 College Football Matchup East Carolina at UCF Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 9 2021 · Week 6 · 🏟 Bright House Networks Stadium Orlando, FL · Turf · 44,206 cap
East Carolina✈ 532 miSame TZ
16 20
Final
UCF
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
East Carolina
27
UCF
34
P&R Line UCF -7
P&R Total O/U 60
Confidence 90 High
Vegas UCF -10 · O/U 65.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors East Carolina, while Game Control favors UCF. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
UCF wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UCF -10
O/U 65.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UCF · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
East Carolina 2021 Schedule
East Carolina's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2East Carolina at App State+9.0L19–3355.5L19–33UN
Sat 9/11East Carolina vs South Carolina+3.0L17–2056.5L17–20UY
Sat 9/18East Carolina at Marshall+11.0W42–3858.5W42–38OY
Sat 9/25East Carolina vs Charleston Southern-24.5W31–2859.0W31–28UN
Sat 10/2East Carolina vs Tulane+3.0W52–2965.0W52–29OY
Sat 10/9East Carolina at UCF+10.0L16–2065.0L16–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/23East Carolina at Houston+13.5L24–3156.0L24–31UY
Thu 10/28East Carolina vs South Florida-9.5W29–1455.5W29–14UY
Sat 11/6East Carolina vs Temple-15.5W45–352.0W45–3UY
Sat 11/13East Carolina at Memphis+4.0W30–2958.5W30–29OY
Sat 11/20East Carolina at Navy-3.5W38–3546.0W38–35ON
Fri 11/26East Carolina vs Cincinnati+14.5L13–3556.5L13–35UN
Mon 12/27East Carolina vs Boston College+3.052.5
UCF 2021 Schedule
UCF's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2UCF vs Boise State-6.5W36–3167.0W36–31UN
Sat 9/11UCF vs Bethune-Cookman-46.0W63–1467.0W63–14OY
Fri 9/17UCF at Louisville-7.0L35–4267.5L35–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/2UCF at Navy-15.0L30–3452.5L30–34ON
Sat 10/9UCF vs East Carolina-10.0W20–1665.0W20–16UN
Sat 10/16UCF at Cincinnati+21.5L21–5656.0L21–56ON
Fri 10/22UCF vs Memphis-1.5W24–763.5W24–7UY
Sat 10/30UCF at Temple-12.0W49–752.0W49–7OY
Sat 11/6UCF vs Tulane-13.5W14–1057.0W14–10UN
Sat 11/13UCF at SMU+7.0L28–5561.5L28–55ON
Sat 11/20UCF vs UConn-30.0W49–1756.0W49–17OY
Fri 11/26UCF vs South Florida-17.0W17–1362.0W17–13UN
Thu 12/23UCF vs Florida+7.0W29–1756.0W29–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
UCF PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UCF
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UCF
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UCF
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
East Carolina
+0.355
UCF
+0.435
UCF Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina
+0.406
UCF
+0.438
UCF Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
East Carolina
0.186
UCF
0.190
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UCF Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina
+7.156
UCF
+8.141
UCF Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
East Carolina
+0.810
UCF
+0.833
UCF Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
East Carolina
70.5
UCF
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UCF Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UCF Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
East Carolina
1.4
UCF
4.2
Offense Rating
East Carolina
15.8
UCF
17.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
East Carolina
14.4
UCF
13.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? East Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
East Carolina #26
1.80
UCF #71
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #82
1.40
UCF #109
1.00
East Carolina +0.80
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UCF Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
East Carolina #1
49.1
UCF #1
59.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #65
39.7
UCF #37
23.8
UCF +10.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UCF
47.6 — 25.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
UCF won by 4
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
8–16 (33%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Donnie Kirkpatrick Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Harrell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UCF
Gus Malzahn #1
2–1 (67%) · Yr 1 at school
OC G. J. Kinne Yr 1 #1
DC Travis Williams Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself