Sat, Oct 9 2021
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Bright House Networks Stadium
Orlando, FL
·
Turf
·
44,206 cap
East Carolina✈ 532 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors East Carolina,
while Game Control favors UCF.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
UCF wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UCF -10
O/U 65.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UCF
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
East Carolina 2021 Schedule
East Carolina's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | East Carolina at App State | +9.0L19–33 | 55.5 | L19–33 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | East Carolina vs South Carolina | +3.0L17–20 | 56.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | East Carolina at Marshall | +11.0W42–38 | 58.5 | W42–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | East Carolina vs Charleston Southern | -24.5W31–28 | 59.0 | W31–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | East Carolina vs Tulane | +3.0W52–29 | 65.0 | W52–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | East Carolina at UCF | +10.0L16–20 | 65.0 | L16–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | East Carolina at Houston | +13.5L24–31 | 56.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/28 | East Carolina vs South Florida | -9.5W29–14 | 55.5 | W29–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | East Carolina vs Temple | -15.5W45–3 | 52.0 | W45–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | East Carolina at Memphis | +4.0W30–29 | 58.5 | W30–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | East Carolina at Navy | -3.5W38–35 | 46.0 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Fri 11/26 | East Carolina vs Cincinnati | +14.5L13–35 | 56.5 | L13–35 | U | N |
| Mon 12/27 | East Carolina vs Boston College | +3.0 | 52.5 | — | — | — |
UCF 2021 Schedule
UCF's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | UCF vs Boise State | -6.5W36–31 | 67.0 | W36–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | UCF vs Bethune-Cookman | -46.0W63–14 | 67.0 | W63–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/17 | UCF at Louisville | -7.0L35–42 | 67.5 | L35–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/2 | UCF at Navy | -15.0L30–34 | 52.5 | L30–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | UCF vs East Carolina | -10.0W20–16 | 65.0 | W20–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | UCF at Cincinnati | +21.5L21–56 | 56.0 | L21–56 | O | N |
| Fri 10/22 | UCF vs Memphis | -1.5W24–7 | 63.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | UCF at Temple | -12.0W49–7 | 52.0 | W49–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | UCF vs Tulane | -13.5W14–10 | 57.0 | W14–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | UCF at SMU | +7.0L28–55 | 61.5 | L28–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | UCF vs UConn | -30.0W49–17 | 56.0 | W49–17 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | UCF vs South Florida | -17.0W17–13 | 62.0 | W17–13 | U | N |
| Thu 12/23 | UCF vs Florida | +7.0W29–17 | 56.0 | W29–17 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UCF
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UCF
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UCF
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
East Carolina Edge
East Carolina +0.80
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UCF Edge
UCF +10.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UCF
47.6 — 25.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
UCF won by 4
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
8–16 (33%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Donnie Kirkpatrick
Yr 1
#1
DC
Blake Harrell
Yr 1
#1
UCF
Gus Malzahn #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
G. J. Kinne
Yr 1
#1
DC
Travis Williams
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

