Sat, Nov 13 2021
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Memphis, TN
·
Turf
·
62,380 cap
East Carolina✈ 711 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors East Carolina,
while Game Control favors Memphis.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Memphis wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Memphis -4
O/U 58.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
East Carolina 2021 Schedule
East Carolina's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | East Carolina at App State | +9.0L19–33 | 55.5 | L19–33 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | East Carolina vs South Carolina | +3.0L17–20 | 56.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | East Carolina at Marshall | +11.0W42–38 | 58.5 | W42–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | East Carolina vs Charleston Southern | -24.5W31–28 | 59.0 | W31–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | East Carolina vs Tulane | +3.0W52–29 | 65.0 | W52–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | East Carolina at UCF | +10.0L16–20 | 65.0 | L16–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | East Carolina at Houston | +13.5L24–31 | 56.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/28 | East Carolina vs South Florida | -9.5W29–14 | 55.5 | W29–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | East Carolina vs Temple | -15.5W45–3 | 52.0 | W45–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | East Carolina at Memphis | +4.0W30–29 | 58.5 | W30–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | East Carolina at Navy | -3.5W38–35 | 46.0 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Fri 11/26 | East Carolina vs Cincinnati | +14.5L13–35 | 56.5 | L13–35 | U | N |
| Mon 12/27 | East Carolina vs Boston College | +3.0 | 52.5 | — | — | — |
Memphis 2021 Schedule
Memphis's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Memphis vs Nicholls | -22.5W42–17 | 68.0 | W42–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Memphis at Arkansas State | -5.5W55–50 | 65.0 | W55–50 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Memphis vs Mississippi State | +3.0W31–29 | 63.0 | W31–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Memphis vs UTSA | -3.0L28–31 | 66.5 | L28–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Memphis at Temple | -11.0L31–34 | 58.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Memphis at Tulsa | +3.0L29–35 | 60.5 | L29–35 | O | N |
| Thu 10/14 | Memphis vs Navy | -11.0W35–17 | 55.5 | W35–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/22 | Memphis at UCF | +1.5L7–24 | 63.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | Memphis vs SMU | +3.5W28–25 | 72.0 | W28–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Memphis vs East Carolina | -4.0L29–30 | 58.5 | L29–30 | O | N |
| Fri 11/19 | Memphis at Houston | +9.0L13–31 | 59.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Memphis vs Tulane | -5.5W33–28 | 58.0 | W33–28 | O | N |
| Fri 12/24 | Memphis at Hawai'i | -10.0 | 56.0 | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
East Carolina Edge
East Carolina +0.56
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Memphis Edge
Memphis +8.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
8–16 (33%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Donnie Kirkpatrick
Yr 1
#1
DC
Blake Harrell
Yr 1
#1
Memphis
Ryan Silverfield #1
11–4 (73%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Kevin Johns
Yr 1
#1
DC
Mike MacIntyre
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓