Sat, Sep 25 2021
·
Week 4
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🏟 Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Greenville, NC
·
Turf
·
50,000 cap
Charleston Southern✈ 237 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
East Carolina -24.5
O/U 59.0
consensus
Charleston Southern 2021 Schedule
Charleston Southern's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/25 | Charleston Southern at East Carolina | +24.5L28–31 | 59.0 | L28–31 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/20 | Charleston Southern at Georgia | +52.5L7–56 | 59.5 | L7–56 | O | Y |
East Carolina 2021 Schedule
East Carolina's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | East Carolina at App State | +9.0L19–33 | 55.5 | L19–33 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | East Carolina vs South Carolina | +3.0L17–20 | 56.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | East Carolina at Marshall | +11.0W42–38 | 58.5 | W42–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | East Carolina vs Charleston Southern | -24.5W31–28 | 59.0 | W31–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | East Carolina vs Tulane | +3.0W52–29 | 65.0 | W52–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | East Carolina at UCF | +10.0L16–20 | 65.0 | L16–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | East Carolina at Houston | +13.5L24–31 | 56.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/28 | East Carolina vs South Florida | -9.5W29–14 | 55.5 | W29–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | East Carolina vs Temple | -15.5W45–3 | 52.0 | W45–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | East Carolina at Memphis | +4.0W30–29 | 58.5 | W30–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | East Carolina at Navy | -3.5W38–35 | 46.0 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Fri 11/26 | East Carolina vs Cincinnati | +14.5L13–35 | 56.5 | L13–35 | U | N |
| Mon 12/27 | East Carolina vs Boston College | +3.0 | 52.5 | — | — | — |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Charleston Southern Edge
Charleston Southern +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Charleston Southern Edge
Charleston Southern +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
East Carolina
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
East Carolina
79.1 — 11.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
East Carolina won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on East Carolina, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓