Sat, Oct 2 2021
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Murfreesboro, TN
·
Turf
·
31,000 cap
Marshall✈ 280 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Marshall
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Marshall entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Marshall wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Marshall wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Marshall -11
O/U 66.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Marshall
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Marshall 2021 Schedule
Marshall's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Marshall at Navy | -3.5W49–7 | 46.5 | W49–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Marshall vs North Carolina Central | -42.5W44–10 | 53.5 | W44–10 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Marshall vs East Carolina | -11.0L38–42 | 58.5 | L38–42 | O | N |
| Thu 9/23 | Marshall at App State | +7.0L30–31 | 59.0 | L30–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Marshall at Middle Tennessee | -11.0L28–34 | 66.0 | L28–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Marshall vs Old Dominion | -21.5W20–13 | 62.0 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Fri 10/15 | Marshall at North Texas | -11.0W49–21 | 66.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Marshall vs Florida International | -21.5W38–0 | 64.0 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Marshall at Florida Atlantic | -1.0W28–13 | 58.0 | W28–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Marshall vs UAB | -4.5L14–21 | 55.5 | L14–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Marshall at Charlotte | -14.0W49–28 | 62.0 | W49–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Marshall vs Western Kentucky | +1.0L21–53 | 75.5 | L21–53 | U | N |
| Sat 12/18 | Marshall vs Louisiana | +4.0L21–36 | 55.5 | L21–36 | O | N |
Middle Tennessee 2021 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Middle Tennessee vs Monmouth | -8.5W50–15 | 58.5 | W50–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Middle Tennessee at Virginia Tech | +20.0L14–35 | 55.0 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Middle Tennessee at UTSA | +11.5L13–27 | 60.0 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Fri 9/24 | Middle Tennessee at Charlotte | +2.5L39–42 | 55.5 | L39–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Middle Tennessee vs Marshall | +11.0W34–28 | 66.0 | W34–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Middle Tennessee at Liberty | +20.0L13–41 | 59.0 | L13–41 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/22 | Middle Tennessee at UConn | -14.0W44–13 | 54.0 | W44–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Middle Tennessee vs Southern Miss | -12.5W35–10 | 47.0 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky | +17.5L21–48 | 66.5 | L21–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Middle Tennessee vs Florida International | -10.5W50–10 | 54.0 | W50–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Middle Tennessee vs Old Dominion | -3.0L17–24 | 48.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic | +3.5W27–17 | 49.5 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/17 | Middle Tennessee vs Toledo | +10.0W31–24 | 50.0 | W31–24 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Marshall
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Marshall Edge
Marshall +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Marshall Edge
Marshall +47.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Middle Tennessee
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Middle Tennessee
75.4 — 13.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Middle Tennessee won by 6
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Marshall with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Marshall
Charles Huff #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Tim Cramsey
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lance Guidry
Yr 1
#1
Middle Tennessee
Rick Stockstill #1
95–94 (50%)
· Yr 16 at school
OC
Brent Dearmon
Yr 1
#1
DC
Scott Shafer
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

