Marshall at Middle Tennessee Week 5 College Football Matchup Marshall at Middle Tennessee Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Oct 2 2021 · Week 5 · 🏟 Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium"" Murfreesboro, TN · Turf · 31,000 cap
Marshall✈ 280 mi-1 hr TZ
Away
28 34
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Marshall
35
MTSU +11
Middle Tennessee
26
P&R Line Marshall -9.5
P&R Total O/U 61
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Marshall -11 · O/U 66.0
Matchup Prediction
Marshall has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Marshall entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Marshall wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Marshall wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Marshall -11
O/U 66.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Marshall · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Marshall 2nd straight Road Game
Marshall 2021 Schedule
Marshall's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Marshall at Navy-3.5W49–746.5W49–7OY
Sat 9/11Marshall vs North Carolina Central-42.5W44–1053.5W44–10ON
Sat 9/18Marshall vs East Carolina-11.0L38–4258.5L38–42ON
Thu 9/23Marshall at App State+7.0L30–3159.0L30–31OY
Sat 10/2Marshall at Middle Tennessee-11.0L28–3466.0L28–34UN
Sat 10/9Marshall vs Old Dominion-21.5W20–1362.0W20–13UN
Fri 10/15Marshall at North Texas-11.0W49–2166.5W49–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30Marshall vs Florida International-21.5W38–064.0W38–0UY
Sat 11/6Marshall at Florida Atlantic-1.0W28–1358.0W28–13UY
Sat 11/13Marshall vs UAB-4.5L14–2155.5L14–21UN
Sat 11/20Marshall at Charlotte-14.0W49–2862.0W49–28OY
Sat 11/27Marshall vs Western Kentucky+1.0L21–5375.5L21–53UN
Sat 12/18Marshall vs Louisiana+4.0L21–3655.5L21–36ON
Middle Tennessee 2021 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Middle Tennessee vs Monmouth-8.5W50–1558.5W50–15OY
Sat 9/11Middle Tennessee at Virginia Tech+20.0L14–3555.0L14–35UN
Sat 9/18Middle Tennessee at UTSA+11.5L13–2760.0L13–27UN
Fri 9/24Middle Tennessee at Charlotte+2.5L39–4255.5L39–42ON
Sat 10/2Middle Tennessee vs Marshall+11.0W34–2866.0W34–28UY
Sat 10/9Middle Tennessee at Liberty+20.0L13–4159.0L13–41UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/22Middle Tennessee at UConn-14.0W44–1354.0W44–13OY
Sat 10/30Middle Tennessee vs Southern Miss-12.5W35–1047.0W35–10UY
Sat 11/6Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+17.5L21–4866.5L21–48ON
Sat 11/13Middle Tennessee vs Florida International-10.5W50–1054.0W50–10OY
Sat 11/20Middle Tennessee vs Old Dominion-3.0L17–2448.5L17–24UN
Sat 11/27Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic+3.5W27–1749.5W27–17UY
Fri 12/17Middle Tennessee vs Toledo+10.0W31–2450.0W31–24OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Marshall PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Marshall
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Marshall
+0.395
Middle Tennessee
+0.296
Marshall Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Marshall
+0.539
Middle Tennessee
+0.394
Marshall Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Marshall
0.167
Middle Tennessee
0.276
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Middle Tennessee Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Marshall
+7.869
Middle Tennessee
+7.316
Marshall Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Marshall
+0.891
Middle Tennessee
+0.794
Marshall Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Marshall
70.4
Middle Tennessee
68.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Middle Tennessee Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Marshall Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Marshall
-3.0
Middle Tennessee
-17.5
Offense Rating
Marshall
13.9
Middle Tennessee
5.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Marshall
16.9
Middle Tennessee
22.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Marshall Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Marshall #29
2.00
Middle Tennessee #104
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Marshall #111
0.67
Middle Tennessee #76
1.00
Marshall +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Marshall Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Marshall #1
76.4
Middle Tennessee #1
28.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Marshall #34
14.7
Middle Tennessee #86
58.8
Marshall +47.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Middle Tennessee
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Middle Tennessee
75.4 — 13.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Middle Tennessee won by 6
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Marshall with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Marshall
Charles Huff #1
2–1 (67%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Tim Cramsey Yr 1 #1
DC Lance Guidry Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Middle Tennessee
Rick Stockstill #1
95–94 (50%) · Yr 16 at school
OC Brent Dearmon Yr 1 #1
DC Scott Shafer Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself