Old Dominion at Marshall Week 6 College Football Matchup Old Dominion at Marshall Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 9 2021 · Week 6 · 🏟 Joan C. Edwards Stadium Huntington, WV · Turf · 38,019 cap
Old Dominion✈ 350 miSame TZ
13 20
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Old Dominion
20
Marshall
38
P&R Line Marshall -18
P&R Total O/U 58
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Marshall -21.5 · O/U 62.0
Matchup Prediction
Marshall has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Marshall entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Marshall wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Marshall wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Marshall -21.5
O/U 62.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Marshall · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Old Dominion 2nd straight Road Game
Old Dominion 2021 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3Old Dominion at Wake Forest+32.5L10–4261.5L10–42UY
Sat 9/11Old Dominion vs Hampton-21.5W47–755.0W47–7UY
Sat 9/18Old Dominion at Liberty+26.5L17–4553.5L17–45ON
Sat 9/25Old Dominion vs Buffalo+13.0L34–3550.5L34–35OY
Sat 10/2Old Dominion at UTEP+5.5L21–2848.5L21–28ON
Sat 10/9Old Dominion at Marshall+21.5L13–2062.0L13–20UY
Sat 10/16Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky+13.5L20–4366.5L20–43UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30Old Dominion vs Louisiana Tech+4.0W23–2052.0W23–20UY
Sat 11/6Old Dominion at Florida International-3.0W47–2450.0W47–24OY
Sat 11/13Old Dominion vs Florida Atlantic+6.5W30–1648.0W30–16UY
Sat 11/20Old Dominion at Middle Tennessee+3.0W24–1748.5W24–17UY
Sat 11/27Old Dominion vs Charlotte-8.5W56–3455.5W56–34OY
Mon 12/20Old Dominion vs Tulsa+7.5L17–3055.0L17–30UN
Marshall 2021 Schedule
Marshall's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Marshall at Navy-3.5W49–746.5W49–7OY
Sat 9/11Marshall vs North Carolina Central-42.5W44–1053.5W44–10ON
Sat 9/18Marshall vs East Carolina-11.0L38–4258.5L38–42ON
Thu 9/23Marshall at App State+7.0L30–3159.0L30–31OY
Sat 10/2Marshall at Middle Tennessee-11.0L28–3466.0L28–34UN
Sat 10/9Marshall vs Old Dominion-21.5W20–1362.0W20–13UN
Fri 10/15Marshall at North Texas-11.0W49–2166.5W49–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30Marshall vs Florida International-21.5W38–064.0W38–0UY
Sat 11/6Marshall at Florida Atlantic-1.0W28–1358.0W28–13UY
Sat 11/13Marshall vs UAB-4.5L14–2155.5L14–21UN
Sat 11/20Marshall at Charlotte-14.0W49–2862.0W49–28OY
Sat 11/27Marshall vs Western Kentucky+1.0L21–5375.5L21–53UN
Sat 12/18Marshall vs Louisiana+4.0L21–3655.5L21–36ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Marshall PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Marshall
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Old Dominion
+0.325
Marshall
+0.382
Marshall Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion
+0.381
Marshall
+0.521
Marshall Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Old Dominion
0.164
Marshall
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Marshall Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion
+6.800
Marshall
+7.801
Marshall Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Old Dominion
+0.826
Marshall
+0.886
Marshall Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Old Dominion
69.4
Marshall
70.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Old Dominion Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Old Dominion Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Old Dominion
0.3
Marshall
-3.1
Offense Rating
Old Dominion
14.4
Marshall
13.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Old Dominion
14.2
Marshall
17.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Marshall Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Old Dominion #95
1.40
Marshall #29
1.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #88
1.20
Marshall #111
0.75
Marshall +0.10
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Marshall Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Old Dominion #1
22.6
Marshall #1
63.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #98
72.8
Marshall #34
26.8
Marshall +41.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Marshall with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
1–2 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Kirk Campbell Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Seiler Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Marshall
Charles Huff #1
2–1 (67%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Tim Cramsey Yr 1 #1
DC Lance Guidry Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself