Louisiana Tech at UTEP Week 7 College Football Matchup Louisiana Tech at UTEP Matchup - Week 7
Sun, Oct 17 2021 · Week 7 · 🏟 Sun Bowl Stadium El Paso, TX · Turf · 51,500 cap
Louisiana Tech✈ 811 mi-1 hr TZ
3 19
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Louisiana Tech
23
UTEP
33
P&R Line UTEP -10
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Louisiana Tech -6.5 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
UTEP has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor UTEP entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
UTEP wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
UTEP wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Louisiana Tech -6.5
O/U 55.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UTEP · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Louisiana Tech Coming off BYE
Louisiana Tech 2021 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State+20.5L34–3552.5L34–35OY
Sat 9/11Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana-11.5W45–4270.5W45–42ON
Sat 9/18Louisiana Tech vs SMU+11.0L37–3965.0L37–39OY
Sat 9/25Louisiana Tech vs North Texas-9.5W24–1765.0W24–17UN
Sat 10/2Louisiana Tech at NC State+18.5L27–3456.0L27–34OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Louisiana Tech at UTEP-6.5L3–1955.5L3–19UN
Sat 10/23Louisiana Tech vs UTSA+5.5L16–4559.5L16–45ON
Sat 10/30Louisiana Tech at Old Dominion-4.0L20–2352.0L20–23UN
Sat 11/6Louisiana Tech at UAB+14.0L38–5249.5L38–52OY
Sat 11/13Louisiana Tech vs Charlotte-7.0W42–3258.0W42–32OY
Fri 11/19Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss-15.0L19–3547.5L19–35ON
Sat 11/27Louisiana Tech at Rice-3.5L31–3552.5L31–35ON
UTEP 2021 Schedule
UTEP's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/28UTEP at New Mexico State-9.5W30–359.0W30–3UY
Sat 9/4UTEP vs Bethune-Cookman-20.5W38–2852.5W38–28ON
Fri 9/10UTEP at Boise State+25.0L13–5456.0L13–54ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/25UTEP vs New Mexico+2.5W20–1353.5W20–13UY
Sat 10/2UTEP vs Old Dominion-5.5W28–2148.5W28–21OY
Sat 10/9UTEP at Southern Miss-1.0W26–1346.5W26–13UY
Sat 10/16UTEP vs Louisiana Tech+6.5W19–355.5W19–3UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30UTEP at Florida Atlantic+11.0L25–2849.0L25–28OY
Sat 11/6UTEP vs UTSA+12.0L23–4453.5L23–44ON
Sat 11/13UTEP at North Texas+1.0L17–2055.5L17–20UN
Sat 11/20UTEP vs Rice-9.0W38–2847.0W38–28OY
Fri 11/26UTEP at UAB+13.5L25–4249.5L25–42ON
Sat 12/18UTEP vs Fresno State+11.5L24–3151.5L24–31OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
UTEP PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UTEP
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UTEP
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UTEP
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Louisiana Tech
+0.321
UTEP
+0.495
UTEP Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech
+0.578
UTEP
+0.807
UTEP Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech
0.152
UTEP
0.175
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UTEP Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech
+7.512
UTEP
+7.857
UTEP Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech
+0.804
UTEP
+0.842
UTEP Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech
69.4
UTEP
73.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Louisiana Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Louisiana Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Louisiana Tech
-5.0
UTEP
-16.2
Offense Rating
Louisiana Tech
13.5
UTEP
4.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Louisiana Tech
18.4
UTEP
20.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UTEP Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Louisiana Tech #82
1.00
UTEP #106
1.20
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #60
1.00
UTEP #89
0.60
UTEP +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UTEP Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Louisiana Tech #1
47.6
UTEP #1
60.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #79
41.1
UTEP #71
28.4
UTEP +12.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UTEP
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
UTEP
82.8 — 10.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
UTEP won by 16
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on UTEP with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Louisiana Tech
Skip Holtz #1
62–43 (59%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Joe Sloan Yr 1 #1
DC David Blackwell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UTEP
Dana Dimel #1
7–28 (20%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Dave Warner Yr 1 #1
DC Bradley Dale Peveto Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself