Michigan State at Wisconsin - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers

Wisconsin logo
Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Camp Randall Stadium - Madison, WI  (Big Ten)

 
Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#87)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 3)
WIS is playing their 5th straight game
MSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Wisconsin -2.5  (SP+ MSU -1)

Projected Score: MSU: 21 - WIS: 24 (45)
WIS Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
MSU Travel: 251 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Badgers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (17 - 21)
Avg Score : 13 - 22 (16 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#79)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
 
Michigan State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Michigan State vs Toledo+1
Sat 9/12Michigan State vs Eastern Michigan-12.5
Sat 9/19Michigan State at Notre Dame+29.5
Sat 9/26Michigan State vs Nebraska+4
Sat 10/3Michigan State at Wisconsin+2.5
Sat 10/10Michigan State vs Illinois+10.5
Sat 10/17Michigan State vs Northwestern+1
Sat 10/24Michigan State at UCLA+6
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/7Michigan State at Michigan+22
Sat 11/14Michigan State vs Washington+19
Sat 11/21Michigan State vs Oregon+24
Sat 11/28Michigan State at Rutgers+4.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Wisconsin's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/6Wisconsin vs Notre Dame+24.5
Sat 9/12Wisconsin vs Western Illinois-23.5
Sat 9/19Wisconsin vs Eastern Michigan-13
Sat 9/26Wisconsin at Penn State+20
Sat 10/3Wisconsin vs Michigan State-2.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/17Wisconsin at UCLA+5.5
Sat 10/24Wisconsin vs USC+18
Sat 10/31Wisconsin at Iowa+19
Sat 11/7Wisconsin vs Rutgers-1
Sat 11/14Wisconsin at Maryland+4.5
Sat 11/21Wisconsin at Purdue-0.5
Sat 11/28Wisconsin vs Minnesota+4

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wisconsin's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#97 (.12)42% (79)24.642% (84)2.56 (128)12342% (67)2233.75 (64)#104 (.21)45% (115)29.947% (121)44% (103)3.91 (93)44.910.8
WIS#132 (.01)35% (130)12.834% (132)2.82 (91)11838% (108)1362.28 (135)#88 (.19)45% (110)21.644% (92)46% (118)3.13 (25)30.11.30.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
WIS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Offense1224.621.641.7%3.751193451232233.847%51%42%42%18%.12
WIS Defense1221.618.344.8%3.130.5 - - - - - 47%51%44%46%13%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Defense1229.932.845.2%3.910.8 - - - - - 49%49%47%44%14%.21
WIS Offense1212.815.635.4%2.281.3142551181363.456%42%34%38%18%.01

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan State1230:1118.835%44%5.344.910.84.71.8127.3
Wisconsin1230:3714.132%67%3.630.11.30.55.12.6128.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Offense1247% (90)42% (84)32.3122.73.816 (60).06 (96)2.56 (128)65% (109)13% (131)0.95 (73)
WIS Defense1247% (31)44% (92) - - - - .06 (42)2.75 (43)71% (70)9% (89)0.86 (16)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Defense1249% (53)47% (121) - - - - .16 (101)2.87 (66)81% (125)9% (97)0.91 (44)
WIS Offense1256% (24)34% (132)35.1118.33.49 (122).04 (107)2.82 (91)66% (103)12% (121)1.05 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Offense1251% (52)42% (67)2031.5222.77.111.120 (50)6 (34).24 (74)1.4 (112)30% (54)30% (78).37 (44)5% (23)2.1 (49)
WIS Defense1251% (100)46% (118) - - - - - - 5 (75).33 (106)1.4 (11)30% (97)29% (67).34 (91)4% (133)2 (70)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Defense1249% (83)44% (103) - - - - - - 5 (100).32 (103)1.5 (34)29% (111)30% (74).33 (86)5% (114)2.1 (88)
WIS Offense1242% (113)38% (108)13.122.7136.4610.49 (114)13 (119).03 (131)1.5 (105)33% (101)25% (120).2 (109)7% (95)2.1 (48)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 3.19  #66
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 14.58  #61
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 16.39  #73
2026 Talent Rating: 800.00  #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 10%  #39
Michigan State's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #82
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #70
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 916.78
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 3.19   Wisconsin: 2.505

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -3.4   Wisconsin: -4.4




Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 2.505  #60
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 13.82  #66
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 14.41  #59
2026 Talent Rating: 866.00  #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 15  #27
Wisconsin's 2026 Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1
Wisconsin's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.4  #85
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #122
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #34

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 916.78
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Wisconsin 24
Michigan State 21


Projected Total Points: 45
Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 12.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 15.6
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.3

Wisconsin's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202210/15Michigan State34Wisconsin28Wisconsin -7Michigan State49.5Over
201910/12Wisconsin38Michigan State0Wisconsin -8Wisconsin39.0Under
201609/24Michigan State6Wisconsin30Michigan State -6Wisconsin42.5Under
201210/27Wisconsin13Michigan State16
201112/03Michigan State39Wisconsin42
201110/22Michigan State37Wisconsin31
201010/02Michigan State34Wisconsin24
200909/26Wisconsin38Michigan State30
200811/01Michigan State25Wisconsin24
200709/29Wisconsin37Michigan State34
200411/13Michigan State49Wisconsin14
200311/15Wisconsin56Michigan State21
200210/26Michigan State24Wisconsin42
200110/27Wisconsin28Michigan State42
200010/13Michigan State10Wisconsin17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Wisconsin821 Overs
Michigan State712 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 62 - 11 - 11 - 0
Road Teams6 - 91 - 20 - 11 - 1

(#66) MSU at (#60) WIS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSUWIS
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #66 #60
SP+SP+ #82 #85
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #61 #43
Blue ChipsBC% #39 #27
Michigan State Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Excited for Fitz & move past recent mess
(1/30) Starters QB, RB, WR1, LT, 2 DL left via portal
(1/29) Is Fitz a fit in this era? Definite staff upgrade
(1/29) QB Milivojevic vs Fancher (5K pass/1K rush exp)
(1/29) RB Edwards (UConn) much needed. Some depth
(1/29) WR a huge ? that lacks any obvious answers
(1/29) OL 4 clear starters + good depth. Sneaky good?
(1/29) DL looks small and lacks dudes. Big weakness
(1/29) LBs mostly portals but good parts, Cov issues?
(1/29) DB 5 portals, need Saf Martinez to be healthy
(1/29) Better TY, but will struggle to bowl w/o big jumps
Michigan State Injury Report
Wisconsin Notes
(2/14) Vibes: Low, Fickell era bad, Off a disaster
(2/10) Any momentum from beating UW & Illinois LY?
(2/2) Fickell era hasn't worked. NIL $ not fast enough
(1/29) OC Grimes was no better than Longo in Yr 1
(1/29) QB C Joseph potential game changer. Huge fan
(1/29) RB portal Sama great add. Should go 3 deep
(1/29) WR 4 portal adds, nothing special. Avg at best
(1/29) OL a mess. 4 portals. Patchwork Avg line at best
(1/29) DL complete rebuild via portals. Don't see it
(1/29) LBs could be better, DBs look solid w/ good portals
Wisconsin Injury Report
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffWIS Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #79 #110
ExplosiveExp #97 #20
PPAPPA #97 #88
PowerPwr #61 #59
SP+SP+ #70 #34
Pts POPPO #64 #25
HavocHav #115 #120
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffWIS Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #84 #92
Run ExplRExp #73 #16
PPAExp #96 #42
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #128 #43
Stuff RateStuff #132 #24
TackleTak - NR
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffWIS Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #67 #118
Pass ExplPExl #112 #11
PPAExp #74 #106
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #131 #89
DB HavocDB #23 #133
Wisconsin on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatWIS OffMSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #130 #115
ExplosiveExp #75 #30
PPAPPA #132 #104
PowerPwr #66 #73
SP+SP+ #122 #81
Pts POPPO #135 #93
HavocHav #119 #110
Wisconsin Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
WIS OffMSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #132 #121
Run ExplRExp #34 #44
PPAExp #107 #101
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #91 #66
Stuff RateStuff #72 #104
TackleTak - NR
Wisconsin Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatWIS OffMSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #108 #103
Pass ExplPExl #105 #34
PPAExp #131 #103
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #121 #97
DB HavocDB #95 #114
Program Comparison
WIS 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camp Randall Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MSU's OC Nick Sheridan (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Alessio Milivojevic11117364%12671037.3
Cam Fancher (Tr)417257%333004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Camryn Edwards2101240155.973
Marvis Parrish10657615.466
Brandon Tullis6829744.435
Jaziun Patterson (Tr)6029604.917
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chrishon Mccray24330313.845
Marvis Parrish3620315.622
Camryn Edwards1918619.834
KK Smith (Tr)8123215.434

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)804162
Dion Crawford (Tr)795431
Michael Richard Jr.385003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dion Crawford (Tr)795431
Jordan Hall885321
Anelu Lafaele72210
Keahnist Thompson (Tr)82220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Richard Jr.385003
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)804162
Tre Bell (Tr)364002

WIS's OC Jeff Grimes (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Colton Joseph (Tr)17328860%261921109.1
Danny O'Neil619068%635557.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Colton Joseph (Tr)1571011136.478
Abu Sama III (Tr)14173255.244
Darrion Dupree8336324.484
Gideon Ituka6025504.318
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylon Domingeaux (Tr)528571116.582
Shamar Rigby (Tr)25351114.048
Ryan Schwendeman (Tr)15191212.749
Jacob Harris (Tr)1918259.638

View Wisconsin's Full Roster

WIS's DC Mike Tressel (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mason Posa574424
Cooper Catalano565111
Marvin Burks Jr. (Tr)492001
Matthew Jung491000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mason Posa574424
Junior Poyser (Tr)305420
Sebastian Cheeks246320
Hammond Russell IV (Tr)133200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Javan Robinson (Tr)423008
Mason Posa574424
Eric Fletcher (Tr)122002