Michigan State at Wisconsin - 2026 Matchup Preview

Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers

Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Camp Randall Stadium - Madison, WI

Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WIS is playing their 5th straight game
MSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Wisconsin -3.5 (SP+ MSU -1)
Projected Score: MSU: 21 - WIS: 24 (45)
WIS Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MSU Travel: 251 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Badgers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (17 - 21)
Avg Score : 13 - 22 (16 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
WIS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Michigan State vs Toledo	-3
Sat 9/12	Michigan State vs Eastern Michigan	-13
Sat 9/19	Michigan State at Notre Dame	+31
Sat 9/26	Michigan State vs Nebraska	+5
Sat 10/3	Michigan State at Wisconsin	+3.5
Sat 10/10	Michigan State vs Illinois	+10.5
Sat 10/17	Michigan State vs Northwestern	+3
Sat 10/24	Michigan State at UCLA	+2.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7	Michigan State at Michigan	+20
Sat 11/14	Michigan State vs Washington	+18
Sat 11/21	Michigan State vs Oregon	+25
Sat 11/28	Michigan State at Rutgers	+3.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Wisconsin's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/6	Wisconsin vs Notre Dame	+25
Sat 9/12	Wisconsin vs Western Illinois	-22.5
Sat 9/19	Wisconsin vs Eastern Michigan	-14
Sat 9/26	Wisconsin at Penn State	+18.5
Sat 10/3	Wisconsin vs Michigan State	-3.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Wisconsin at UCLA	+1.5
Sat 10/24	Wisconsin vs USC	+19
Sat 10/31	Wisconsin at Iowa	+17
Sat 11/7	Wisconsin vs Rutgers	-3
Sat 11/14	Wisconsin at Maryland	+5.5
Sat 11/21	Wisconsin at Purdue	-0
Sat 11/28	Wisconsin vs Minnesota	+2

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	#97 (.12)	42% (79)	24.6	42% (84)	2.56 (128)	123	42% (67)	223	3.75 (64)	#104 (.21)	45% (115)	29.9	47% (121)	44% (103)	3.91 (93)	44.9	1	0.8
WIS	#132 (.01)	35% (130)	12.8	34% (132)	2.82 (91)	118	38% (108)	136	2.28 (135)	#88 (.19)	45% (110)	21.6	44% (92)	46% (118)	3.13 (25)	30.1	1.3	0.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
WIS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	12	24.6	21.6	41.7%	3.75	1	19	345	123	223	3.8	47%	51%	42%	42%	18%	.12
WIS Defense	12	21.6	18.3	44.8%	3.13	0.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	44%	46%	13%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	12	29.9	32.8	45.2%	3.91	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	47%	44%	14%	.21
WIS Offense	12	12.8	15.6	35.4%	2.28	1.3	14	255	118	136	3.4	56%	42%	34%	38%	18%	.01

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	12	30:11	18.8	35%	44%	5.3	44.9	1	0.8	4.7	1.8	1	27.3
Wisconsin	12	30:37	14.1	32%	67%	3.6	30.1	1.3	0.5	5.1	2.6	1	28.3

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	12	47% (90)	42% (84)	32.3	122.7	3.8	16 (60)	.06 (96)	2.56 (128)	65% (109)	13% (131)	0.95 (73)
WIS Defense	12	47% (31)	44% (92)	-	-	-	-	.06 (42)	2.75 (43)	71% (70)	9% (89)	0.86 (16)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	12	49% (53)	47% (121)	-	-	-	-	.16 (101)	2.87 (66)	81% (125)	9% (97)	0.91 (44)
WIS Offense	12	56% (24)	34% (132)	35.1	118.3	3.4	9 (122)	.04 (107)	2.82 (91)	66% (103)	12% (121)	1.05 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	12	51% (52)	42% (67)	20	31.5	222.7	7.1	11.1	20 (50)	6 (34)	.24 (74)	1.4 (112)	30% (54)	30% (78)	.37 (44)	5% (23)	2.1 (49)
WIS Defense	12	51% (100)	46% (118)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (75)	.33 (106)	1.4 (11)	30% (97)	29% (67)	.34 (91)	4% (133)	2 (70)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	12	49% (83)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (100)	.32 (103)	1.5 (34)	29% (111)	30% (74)	.33 (86)	5% (114)	2.1 (88)
WIS Offense	12	42% (113)	38% (108)	13.1	22.7	136.4	6	10.4	9 (114)	13 (119)	.03 (131)	1.5 (105)	33% (101)	25% (120)	.2 (109)	7% (95)	2.1 (48)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -0.25 #60
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 12.05 #61
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 17.30 #69
2026 Talent Rating: 786.00 #59
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #6
Michigan State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Michigan State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4 #82
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #81

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.78
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -0.25 Wisconsin: 1.73

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -3.4 Wisconsin: -4.4

Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 1.73 #52
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 11.73 #62
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 13.87 #44
2026 Talent Rating: 828.00 #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #24
Wisconsin's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Wisconsin's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.4 #85
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #122
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #34

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.78
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Wisconsin 24
Michigan State 21

Projected Total Points: 45

Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 12.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 15.6
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.3

Wisconsin's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	10/15	Michigan State	34	Wisconsin	28	Wisconsin -7	Michigan State	49.5	Over
2019	10/12	Wisconsin	38	Michigan State	0	Wisconsin -8	Wisconsin	39.0	Under
2016	09/24	Michigan State	6	Wisconsin	30	Michigan State -6	Wisconsin	42.5	Under
2012	10/27	Wisconsin	13	Michigan State	16
2011	12/03	Michigan State	39	Wisconsin	42
2011	10/22	Michigan State	37	Wisconsin	31
2010	10/02	Michigan State	34	Wisconsin	24
2009	09/26	Wisconsin	38	Michigan State	30
2008	11/01	Michigan State	25	Wisconsin	24
2007	09/29	Wisconsin	37	Michigan State	34
2004	11/13	Michigan State	49	Wisconsin	14
2003	11/15	Wisconsin	56	Michigan State	21
2002	10/26	Michigan State	24	Wisconsin	42
2001	10/27	Wisconsin	28	Michigan State	42
2000	10/13	Michigan State	10	Wisconsin	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Wisconsin	8	2	1 Overs
Michigan State	7	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 6	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	6 - 9	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1

(#60) MSU at (#52) WIS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSU	WIS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#60	#52
SP+SP+	#82	#85
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#59	#45
Blue ChipsBC%	#6	#24

Michigan State Injury Report

Wisconsin Injury Report

Michigan State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	WIS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#79	#110
ExplosiveExp	#97	#20
PPAPPA	#97	#88
PowerPwr	#61	#44
SP+SP+	#70	#34
Pts POPPO	#64	#25
HavocHav	#115	#120

Michigan State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	WIS Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#84	#92
Run ExplRExp	#73	#16
PPAExp	#96	#42
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#128	#43
Stuff RateStuff	#132	#24
TackleTak	-	NR

Michigan State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	WIS Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#67	#118
Pass ExplPExl	#112	#11
PPAExp	#74	#106
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#131	#89
DB HavocDB	#23	#133

Wisconsin on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	WIS Off	MSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#130	#115
ExplosiveExp	#75	#30
PPAPPA	#132	#104
PowerPwr	#62	#69
SP+SP+	#122	#81
Pts POPPO	#135	#93
HavocHav	#119	#110

Wisconsin Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	WIS Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#132	#121
Run ExplRExp	#34	#44
PPAExp	#107	#101
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#91	#66
Stuff RateStuff	#72	#104
TackleTak	-	NR

Wisconsin Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	WIS Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#108	#103
Pass ExplPExl	#105	#34
PPAExp	#131	#103
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#121	#97
DB HavocDB	#95	#114

Program Comparison
WIS 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camp Randall Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

MSU's OC Nick Sheridan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alessio Milivojevic	111	173	64%	1267	10	3	7.3
Cam Fancher (Tr)	41	72	57%	333	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Camryn Edwards	210	1240	15	5.9	73
Brandon Tullis	68	297	4	4.4	35
Jaziun Patterson (Tr)	60	296	0	4.9	17
Cam Fancher (Tr)	31	170	1	5.5	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chrishon Mccray	24	330	3	13.8	45
Camryn Edwards	19	186	1	9.8	34
KK Smith (Tr)	8	123	2	15.4	34
Brandon Tullis	11	82	0	7.5	24

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Hall	88	5	3	2	1
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)	80	4	1	6	2
Dion Crawford (Tr)	79	5	4	3	1
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dion Crawford (Tr)	79	5	4	3	1
Jordan Hall	88	5	3	2	1
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5
Anelu Lafaele	7	2	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5
Michael Richard Jr.	38	5	0	0	3
Tre Bell (Tr)	36	4	0	0	2

WIS's OC Jeff Grimes (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Colton Joseph (Tr)	173	288	60%	2619	21	10	9.1
Danny O'Neil	61	90	68%	635	5	5	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Colton Joseph (Tr)	157	1011	13	6.4	78
Abu Sama III (Tr)	141	732	5	5.2	44
Darrion Dupree	83	363	2	4.4	84
Gideon Ituka	60	255	0	4.3	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Vinny Anthony	31	391	1	12.6	67
Shamar Rigby (Tr)	25	351	1	14.0	48
Ryan Schwendeman (Tr)	15	191	2	12.7	49
Jacob Harris (Tr)	19	182	5	9.6	38

View Wisconsin's Full Roster

WIS's DC Mike Tressel (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mason Posa	57	4	4	2	4
Cooper Catalano	56	5	1	1	1
Matthew Jung	49	1	0	0	0
Marvin Burks Jr. (Tr)	49	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mason Posa	57	4	4	2	4
Junior Poyser (Tr)	30	5	4	2	0
Sebastian Cheeks	24	6	3	2	0
Cooper Catalano	56	5	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Javan Robinson (Tr)	42	3	0	0	8
Mason Posa	57	4	4	2	4
Eric Fletcher (Tr)	12	2	0	0	2