Northwestern at Michigan State - 2026 Matchup Preview
Northwestern logo Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State SpartansMichigan State logo
Saturday, October 17th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Spartan Stadium - East Lansing, MI

 
Wildcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach David Braun (19 - 19)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (15 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSU 2nd straight Home Game
MSU is playing their 7th straight game
NW is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Northwestern -3  (SP+ NW -9)
Projected Score: NW: 26 - MSU: 23 (48)
NW Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
NW Travel: 170 miles, 1 hrs behind
Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Northwestern's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Northwestern vs South Dakota State-27
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 Northwestern vs Colorado-14
Sat 9/26 Northwestern at Indiana+28
Sat 10/3 Northwestern vs Penn State+9
Sat 10/10 Northwestern vs Ball State-27.5
Sat 10/17 Northwestern at Michigan State-3
Sat 10/24 Northwestern vs Rutgers-7
Sat 10/31 Northwestern at Oregon+24.5
Sat 11/7 Northwestern vs Iowa+7.5
Sat 11/14 Northwestern at Ohio State+28.5
Sat 11/21 Northwestern at Minnesota+3
Sat 11/28 Northwestern at Illinois+10

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule
Michigan State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Michigan State vs Toledo-3
Sat 9/12 Michigan State vs Eastern Michigan-13
Sat 9/19 Michigan State at Notre Dame+31
Sat 9/26 Michigan State vs Nebraska+5
Sat 10/3 Michigan State at Wisconsin+3.5
Sat 10/10 Michigan State vs Illinois+10.5
Sat 10/17 Michigan State vs Northwestern+3
Sat 10/24 Michigan State at UCLA+2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7 Michigan State at Michigan+20
Sat 11/14 Michigan State vs Washington+18
Sat 11/21 Michigan State vs Oregon+25
Sat 11/28 Michigan State at Rutgers+3.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NW#83 (.15)43% (57)23.446% (46)2.97 (64)16142% (66)1863.21 (116)#72 (.17)45% (117)19.847% (119)44% (101)3.37 (41)33.81.61.5
MSU#97 (.12)42% (79)24.642% (84)2.56 (128)12342% (67)2233.75 (64)#104 (.21)45% (115)29.947% (121)44% (103)3.91 (93)44.910.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NW Offense1323.415.243.2%3.211.6203471611864.751%47%46%42%17%.15
MSU Defense1229.927.845.2%3.910.8 - - - - - 49%49%47%44%14%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NW Defense1319.82645.3%3.371.5 - - - - - 52%46%47%44%15%.17
MSU Offense1224.624.841.7%3.751193451232233.847%51%42%42%18%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Northwestern1332:1819.743%59%4.233.81.61.541.8028.5
Michigan State1230:1118.835%44%5.344.910.84.71.8127.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NW Offense1351% (57)46% (46)34.5160.94.716 (99).14 (58)2.97 (64)76% (41)8% (33)0.91 (92)
MSU Defense1249% (53)47% (121) - - - - .16 (101)2.87 (66)81% (125)9% (97)0.91 (44)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NW Defense1352% (91)47% (119) - - - - .18 (108)3.16 (113)71% (63)9% (93)0.99 (85)
MSU Offense1247% (90)42% (84)32.3122.73.816 (60).06 (96)2.56 (128)65% (109)13% (131)0.95 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NW Offense1347% (81)42% (66)17.229.1185.96.410.817 (75)13 (108).21 (85)1.5 (97)30% (46)33% (33).31 (66)9% (130)1.8 (128)
MSU Defense1249% (83)44% (103) - - - - - - 5 (100).32 (103)1.5 (34)29% (111)30% (74).33 (86)5% (114)2.1 (88)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NW Defense1346% (38)44% (101) - - - - - - 9 (75).24 (63)1.4 (6)28% (119)34% (120).32 (82)6% (62)1.8 (20)
MSU Offense1251% (52)42% (67)2031.5222.77.111.120 (50)6 (34).24 (74)1.4 (112)30% (54)30% (78).37 (44)5% (23)2.1 (49)

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 1.49  #59
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 11.07  #66
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 14.58  #52
2026 Talent Rating: 886.00  #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #24
Northwestern's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Northwestern's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.8  #51
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.78
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: 1.49   Michigan State: 0.675

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: 5.8   Michigan State: -3.4




Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 0.675  #60
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 12.05  #61
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 17.30  #69
2026 Talent Rating: 786.00  #59
Blue Chip Ratio: 12  #6
Michigan State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Michigan State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #82
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #70
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.78
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18


Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 23.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.2
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Northwestern's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Northwestern 26
Michigan State 23

Projected Total Points: 48
Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202109/03Northwestern21Michigan State38Northwestern -3Michigan State45.5Over
202011/28Michigan State29Northwestern20Northwestern -13.5Michigan State40.0Over
201909/21Northwestern10Michigan State31Michigan State -7.5Michigan State35.0Over
201810/06Michigan State19Northwestern29Michigan State -10.5Northwestern43.0Over
201710/28Northwestern39Michigan State31Michigan State -2Northwestern41.5Over
201610/15Michigan State40Northwestern54Michigan State -6.5Northwestern41.0Over
201311/23Northwestern6Michigan State30Michigan State -7Michigan State0
201211/17Michigan State20Northwestern23
201111/26Northwestern17Michigan State31
201010/23Northwestern27Michigan State35
200910/17Michigan State24Northwestern14
200810/11Northwestern20Michigan State37
200710/06Michigan State41Northwestern48
200610/21Northwestern38Michigan State41
200510/22Michigan State14Northwestern49
200209/28Michigan State39Northwestern24
200109/29Northwestern27Michigan State26
200009/29Michigan State17Northwestern37
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan State1046 Overs
Northwestern830 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 132 - 50 - 32 - 2
Road Teams13 - 55 - 22 - 23 - 0

(#59) NW at (#60) MSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNWMSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #59 #60
SP+SP+ #51 #82
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #28 #59
Blue ChipsBC% #24 #6
Northwestern on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
NW OffMSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #57 #115
ExplosiveExp #108 #30
PPAPPA #83 #104
PowerPwr #66 #69
SP+SP+ #90 #81
Pts POPPO #116 #93
HavocHav #94 #110
Northwestern Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
NW OffMSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #46 #121
Run ExplRExp #92 #44
PPAExp #58 #101
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #64 #66
Stuff RateStuff #48 #104
TackleTak - NR
Northwestern Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
NW OffMSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #66 #103
Pass ExplPExl #97 #34
PPAExp #85 #103
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #33 #97
DB HavocDB #130 #114
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatMSU OffNW Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #79 #117
ExplosiveExp #97 #12
PPAPPA #97 #72
PowerPwr #61 #52
SP+SP+ #70 #30
Pts POPPO #64 #41
HavocHav #115 #83
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffNW Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #84 #119
Run ExplRExp #73 #85
PPAExp #96 #108
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #128 #113
Stuff RateStuff #132 #118
TackleTak - NR
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatMSU OffNW Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #67 #101
Pass ExplPExl #112 #6
PPAExp #74 #63
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #131 #93
DB HavocDB #23 #62
Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NW's OC Chip Kelly (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)12820363%13921036.9
Ryan Boe2729%17012.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Komolafe190941115.056
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)10948684.540
Joseph Himon II9948614.937
Aidan Chiles (Tr)8122762.864
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Griffin Wilde71880812.449
Hayden Eligon Ii37521314.138
Ricky Ahumaraeze10200020.035
Drew Wagner2217227.840

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Robert Fitzgerald1066014
Braydon Brus815344
Braden Turner522012
Michael Kilbane428481
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Kilbane428481
Braydon Brus815344
Mason Green11100
Kobie McKinzie (Tr)327140
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Fussell291009
Brenden Deasfernandes (Tr)250008
Robert Fitzgerald1066014

MSU's OC Nick Sheridan (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Alessio Milivojevic11117364%12671037.3
Cam Fancher (Tr)417257%333004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Camryn Edwards2101240155.973
Brandon Tullis6829744.435
Jaziun Patterson (Tr)6029604.917
Cam Fancher (Tr)3117015.525
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chrishon Mccray24330313.845
Camryn Edwards1918619.834
KK Smith (Tr)8123215.434
Brandon Tullis118207.524

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)804162
Dion Crawford (Tr)795431
Malik Spencer523215
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dion Crawford (Tr)795431
Jordan Hall885321
Malik Spencer523215
Anelu Lafaele72210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malik Spencer523215
Michael Richard Jr.385003
Tre Bell (Tr)364002