Toledo at Michigan State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Toledo Rockets at Michigan State Spartans

Saturday, September 5th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Spartan Stadium - East Lansing, MI

Rockets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Jacobs (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Michigan State -3 (SP+ TOL -9.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 22 - MSU: 25 (46)
MSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
TOL Travel: 86 miles

Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
MSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Toledo at Michigan State	+3

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Michigan State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Michigan State vs Toledo	-3
Sat 9/12	Michigan State vs Eastern Michigan	-13
Sat 9/19	Michigan State at Notre Dame	+31
Sat 9/26	Michigan State vs Nebraska	+5
Sat 10/3	Michigan State at Wisconsin	+3.5
Sat 10/10	Michigan State vs Illinois	+10.5
Sat 10/17	Michigan State vs Northwestern	+3
Sat 10/24	Michigan State at UCLA	+2.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7	Michigan State at Michigan	+20
Sat 11/14	Michigan State vs Washington	+18
Sat 11/21	Michigan State vs Oregon	+25
Sat 11/28	Michigan State at Rutgers	+3.5

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#63 (.18)	44% (53)	30.8	43% (70)	2.91 (73)	178	44% (40)	238	3.86 (55)	#2 (-.07)	33% (4)	13.3	39% (29)	28% (1)	2.45 (4)	74.6	1.2	1.6
MSU	#97 (.12)	42% (79)	24.6	42% (84)	2.56 (128)	123	42% (67)	223	3.75 (64)	#104 (.21)	45% (115)	29.9	47% (121)	44% (103)	3.91 (93)	44.9	1	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	13	30.8	17.3	43.6%	3.86	1.2	21	416	178	238	4.9	49%	49%	43%	44%	13%	.18
MSU Defense	12	29.9	27.8	45.2%	3.91	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	47%	44%	14%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	13	13.3	16.7	33.3%	2.45	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	45%	39%	28%	20%	-.07
MSU Offense	12	24.6	24.8	41.7%	3.75	1	19	345	123	223	3.8	47%	51%	42%	42%	18%	.12

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	13	30:26	21.2	40%	24%	8.5	74.6	1.2	1.6	7.1	2.8	3	31.2
Michigan State	12	30:11	18.8	35%	44%	5.3	44.9	1	0.8	4.7	1.8	1	27.3

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	13	49% (69)	43% (70)	36.2	177.7	4.9	22 (40)	.12 (64)	2.91 (73)	78% (27)	9% (53)	0.9 (95)
MSU Defense	12	49% (53)	47% (121)	-	-	-	-	.16 (101)	2.87 (66)	81% (125)	9% (97)	0.91 (44)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	13	52% (98)	39% (29)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (13)	2.36 (7)	67% (39)	13% (7)	0.87 (22)
MSU Offense	12	47% (90)	42% (84)	32.3	122.7	3.8	16 (60)	.06 (96)	2.56 (128)	65% (109)	13% (131)	0.95 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	13	49% (66)	44% (40)	19.7	30.7	238.1	7.8	12.1	27 (22)	10 (60)	.28 (55)	1.6 (62)	32% (71)	29% (79)	.2 (112)	4% (11)	1.9 (115)
MSU Defense	12	49% (83)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (100)	.32 (103)	1.5 (34)	29% (111)	30% (74)	.33 (86)	5% (114)	2.1 (88)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	13	45% (30)	28% (1)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (55)	-.08 (1)	1.6 (108)	35% (22)	19% (1)	-.01 (1)	7% (15)	2.2 (124)
MSU Offense	12	51% (52)	42% (67)	20	31.5	222.7	7.1	11.1	20 (50)	6 (34)	.24 (74)	1.4 (112)	30% (54)	30% (78)	.37 (44)	5% (23)	2.1 (49)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -10.21 #93
Toledo's Offense Rating: 1.08 #124
Toledo's Defense Rating: 16.29 #62
2026 Talent Rating: 484.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #8
Toledo's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Toledo's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0 #48
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #75
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.5 #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 524.17
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -10.21 Michigan State: 0.675

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 6.0 Michigan State: -3.4

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 0.675 #60
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 12.05 #61
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 17.30 #69
2026 Talent Rating: 786.00 #59
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #6
Michigan State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Michigan State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4 #82
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #81

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.78
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan State 25
Toledo 22

Projected Total Points: 46

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan State	0	0	0 Overs
Toledo	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#93) TOL at (#60) MSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	MSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#93	#60
SP+SP+	#48	#82
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#116	#59
Blue ChipsBC%	#8	#6

Toledo Injury Report

Michigan State Injury Report

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	MSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#53	#115
ExplosiveExp	#76	#30
PPAPPA	#63	#104
PowerPwr	#124	#69
SP+SP+	#75	#81
Pts POPPO	#55	#93
HavocHav	#22	#110

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#70	#121
Run ExplRExp	#95	#44
PPAExp	#64	#101
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#73	#66
Stuff RateStuff	#86	#104
TackleTak	-	NR

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#40	#103
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#34
PPAExp	#55	#103
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#53	#97
DB HavocDB	#11	#114

Michigan State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	TOL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#79	#4
ExplosiveExp	#97	#22
PPAPPA	#97	#2
PowerPwr	#61	#62
SP+SP+	#70	#21
Pts POPPO	#64	#4
HavocHav	#115	#5

Michigan State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#84	#29
Run ExplRExp	#73	#22
PPAExp	#96	#13
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#128	#7
Stuff RateStuff	#132	#27
TackleTak	-	NR

Michigan State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#67	#1
Pass ExplPExl	#112	#108
PPAExp	#74	#1
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#131	#7
DB HavocDB	#23	#15

Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

TOL's OC Cris Reisert (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Alan Richter	17	25	68%	153	3	1	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	YPC	LONG
Connor Walendzak	32	99	3.1	11
Michael Drennen II	9	60	6.7	15
Dane Nauman	9	40	4.4	12
Corey Smith (Tr)	14	30	2.1	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terrell Crosby Jr.	16	194	1	12.1	24
Bryson Hammer	3	41	0	13.7	21
Sam Lee	2	40	0	20.0	20
Tashi Braceful	1	36	0	36.0	36

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Jahmal Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Langston Long	33	5	0	0	0
Zach Johnson (Tr)	28	3	2	2	1
Ezra Odinjor (Tr)	28	3	1	2	1
Nicholas Thompson	24	2	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zach Johnson (Tr)	28	3	2	2	1
Ezra Odinjor (Tr)	28	3	1	2	1
Nicholas Thompson	24	2	1	0	0
Langston Long	33	5	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ezra Odinjor (Tr)	28	3	1	2	1
Dylan Hohler	7	1	0	1	1
Zach Johnson (Tr)	28	3	2	2	1

MSU's OC Nick Sheridan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alessio Milivojevic	111	173	64%	1267	10	3	7.3
Cam Fancher (Tr)	41	72	57%	333	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Camryn Edwards	210	1240	15	5.9	73
Brandon Tullis	68	297	4	4.4	35
Jaziun Patterson (Tr)	60	296	0	4.9	17
Cam Fancher (Tr)	31	170	1	5.5	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chrishon Mccray	24	330	3	13.8	45
Camryn Edwards	19	186	1	9.8	34
KK Smith (Tr)	8	123	2	15.4	34
Brandon Tullis	11	82	0	7.5	24

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Hall	88	5	3	2	1
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)	80	4	1	6	2
Dion Crawford (Tr)	79	5	4	3	1
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dion Crawford (Tr)	79	5	4	3	1
Jordan Hall	88	5	3	2	1
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5
Anelu Lafaele	7	2	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5
Michael Richard Jr.	38	5	0	0	3
Tre Bell (Tr)	36	4	0	0	2