Michigan State at UCLA - 2026 Matchup Preview
Michigan State logo

Michigan State Spartans at UCLA Bruins

UCLA logo
Saturday, October 24th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA  (Big Ten)

 
Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#87)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 3)
UCLA 2nd straight Home Game
MSU is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: UCLA -6  (SP+ MSU -5.5)

Projected Score: MSU: 24 - UCLA: 30 (54)
UCLA Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
MSU Travel: 1902 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Bruins (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bob Chesney (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 33 (20 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 6.3 (#68)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
 
Michigan State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Michigan State vs Toledo+1
Sat 9/12Michigan State vs Eastern Michigan-12.5
Sat 9/19Michigan State at Notre Dame+29.5
Sat 9/26Michigan State vs Nebraska+4
Sat 10/3Michigan State at Wisconsin+2.5
Sat 10/10Michigan State vs Illinois+10.5
Sat 10/17Michigan State vs Northwestern+1
Sat 10/24Michigan State at UCLA+6
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/7Michigan State at Michigan+22
Sat 11/14Michigan State vs Washington+19
Sat 11/21Michigan State vs Oregon+24
Sat 11/28Michigan State at Rutgers+4.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
UCLA's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5UCLA at California+2.5
Sat 9/12UCLA vs San Diego State+1.5
Sat 9/19UCLA vs Purdue-8.5
Sat 9/26UCLA at Maryland+1.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10UCLA at Oregon+25.5
Sat 10/17UCLA vs Wisconsin-5.5
Sat 10/24UCLA vs Michigan State-6
Sat 10/31UCLA vs Nevada-22
Sat 11/7UCLA at Minnesota+5.5
Sat 11/14UCLA vs Illinois+7.5
Sat 11/21UCLA at Michigan+18.5
Sat 11/28UCLA vs USC+15

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCLA's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#97 (.12)42% (79)24.642% (84)2.56 (128)12342% (67)2233.75 (64)#104 (.21)45% (115)29.947% (121)44% (103)3.91 (93)44.910.8
UCLA#96 (.12)42% (75)18.245% (54)3.06 (47)14040% (95)1802.98 (124)#122 (.25)50% (135)33.453% (135)48% (127)4.61 (133)65.51.10.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UCLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Offense1224.621.641.7%3.751193451232233.847%51%42%42%18%.12
UCLA Defense1233.434.750.3%4.610.8 - - - - - 54%45%53%48%12%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Defense1229.932.845.2%3.910.8 - - - - - 49%49%47%44%14%.21
UCLA Offense1218.219.541.9%2.981.1173201401804.547%51%45%40%16%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan State1230:1118.835%44%5.344.910.84.71.8127.3
UCLA1229:1117.337%48%7.565.51.10.83.30.8026.4
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Offense1247% (90)42% (84)32.3122.73.816 (60).06 (96)2.56 (128)65% (109)13% (131)0.95 (73)
UCLA Defense1254% (116)53% (135) - - - - .23 (131)3.32 (128)79% (116)7% (132)0.89 (30)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Defense1249% (53)47% (121) - - - - .16 (101)2.87 (66)81% (125)9% (97)0.91 (44)
UCLA Offense1247% (88)45% (54)31.3139.64.58 (107).21 (20)3.06 (47)65% (109)9% (65)1.05 (33)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Offense1251% (52)42% (67)2031.5222.77.111.120 (50)6 (34).24 (74)1.4 (112)30% (54)30% (78).37 (44)5% (23)2.1 (49)
UCLA Defense1245% (23)48% (127) - - - - - - 4 (132).33 (105)1.4 (15)26% (135)40% (135).45 (130)5% (95)1.8 (11)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Defense1249% (83)44% (103) - - - - - - 5 (100).32 (103)1.5 (34)29% (111)30% (74).33 (86)5% (114)2.1 (88)
UCLA Offense1251% (47)40% (95)19.130.1180.369.515 (75)7 (60).09 (126)1.3 (136)32% (75)32% (50).28 (80)7% (95)1.9 (100)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 3.19  #66
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 14.58  #61
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 16.39  #73
2026 Talent Rating: 800.00  #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 10%  #39
Michigan State's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #82
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #70
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 916.78
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 3.19   UCLA: 5.705

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -3.4   UCLA: -8.7




UCLA's Power Ratings
UCLA's Power Rating: 5.705  #23
UCLA's Offense Rating: 21.68  #16
UCLA's Defense Rating: 11.57  #38
2026 Talent Rating: 1000.00  #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #47
UCLA's 2026 Expected Record: 5.7 - 6.3
UCLA's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.7  #98
UCLA's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #105
UCLA's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4  #94

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 916.78
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
UCLA 30
Michigan State 24


Projected Total Points: 54
UCLA Scoring
Offense: 18.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.5
Defense: 33.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

UCLA's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Michigan State13UCLA38Michigan State -7UCLA51.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UCLA110 Overs
Michigan State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#66) MSU at (#23) UCLA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSUUCLA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #66 #23
SP+SP+ #82 #98
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #61 #13
Blue ChipsBC% #39 #47
Michigan State Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Excited for Fitz & move past recent mess
(1/30) Starters QB, RB, WR1, LT, 2 DL left via portal
(1/29) Is Fitz a fit in this era? Definite staff upgrade
(1/29) QB Milivojevic vs Fancher (5K pass/1K rush exp)
(1/29) RB Edwards (UConn) much needed. Some depth
(1/29) WR a huge ? that lacks any obvious answers
(1/29) OL 4 clear starters + good depth. Sneaky good?
(1/29) DL looks small and lacks dudes. Big weakness
(1/29) LBs mostly portals but good parts, Cov issues?
(1/29) DB 5 portals, need Saf Martinez to be healthy
(1/29) Better TY, but will struggle to bowl w/o big jumps
Michigan State Injury Report
UCLA Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Up big w/ Chesney, NIL funding, hope
(2/4) New staff w Chesney. Good OC/DC combo
(2/4) QB Iamaleava was OK in bad spot. Have depth
(2/4) RB Knight (JMU) big add. Have depth options
(2/4) WR all portals but exp'd, productive & older unit
(2/4) OL has lots of exp @ G5 level. Veteran unit
(2/4) DL lots of portals, DEs from JMU, DT looks ?
(2/4) LBs again veteran portals. 7 with good exp
(2/4) CBs look really good, S has good options
(2/4) UCLA is Chesney's version of Cig plan. Promising
UCLA Injury Report
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffUCLA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #79 #135
ExplosiveExp #97 #6
PPAPPA #97 #122
PowerPwr #61 #38
SP+SP+ #70 #94
Pts POPPO #64 #133
HavocHav #115 #130
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffUCLA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #84 #135
Run ExplRExp #73 #30
PPAExp #96 #131
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #128 #128
Stuff RateStuff #132 #129
TackleTak - NR
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffUCLA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #67 #127
Pass ExplPExl #112 #15
PPAExp #74 #105
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #131 #132
DB HavocDB #23 #95
UCLA on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUCLA OffMSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #75 #115
ExplosiveExp #120 #30
PPAPPA #96 #104
PowerPwr #16 #73
SP+SP+ #105 #81
Pts POPPO #124 #93
HavocHav #76 #110
UCLA Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UCLA OffMSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #121
Run ExplRExp #33 #44
PPAExp #20 #101
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #47 #66
Stuff RateStuff #76 #104
TackleTak - NR
UCLA Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUCLA OffMSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #95 #103
Pass ExplPExl #136 #34
PPAExp #126 #103
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #65 #97
DB HavocDB #95 #114
Program Comparison
UCLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rose Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
UCLA beat Michigan State last year (38-13)

  
MSU's OC Nick Sheridan (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Alessio Milivojevic11117364%12671037.3
Cam Fancher (Tr)417257%333004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Camryn Edwards2101240155.973
Marvis Parrish10657615.466
Brandon Tullis6829744.435
Jaziun Patterson (Tr)6029604.917
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chrishon Mccray24330313.845
Marvis Parrish3620315.622
Camryn Edwards1918619.834
KK Smith (Tr)8123215.434

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)804162
Dion Crawford (Tr)795431
Michael Richard Jr.385003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dion Crawford (Tr)795431
Jordan Hall885321
Anelu Lafaele72210
Keahnist Thompson (Tr)82220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Richard Jr.385003
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)804162
Tre Bell (Tr)364002

UCLA's OC Dean Kennedy (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nico Iamaleava20832364%19281376.0
Ty Dieffenbach (Tr)9216257%1305998.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Wayne Knight (Tr)207137396.673
Nico Iamaleava11250544.552
Ty Dieffenbach (Tr)6732144.843
Jaivian Thomas8230613.732
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Leland Smith (Tr)43695316.245
Landon Ellis (Tr)36624517.362
Wayne Knight (Tr)4039719.957
Mikey Matthews33348210.537

View UCLA's Full Roster

UCLA's DC Colin Hitschler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drew Spinogatti (Tr)517163
Samuel Omosigho505203
Tao Johnson (Tr)503004
Jalen Woods475203
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sahir West (Tr)4614774
Aiden Gobaira (Tr)338530
Samuel Omosigho505203
Ryan McCulloch (Tr)113241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Barksdale (Tr)3630112
Rodrick Pleasant362007
Ta'Shawn James (Tr)330005