South Alabama at Kentucky - 2026 Matchup Preview

South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky Wildcats

Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Commonwealth Stadium - Lexington, KY

Jaguars (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (25 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#94)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USA coming off BYE
UK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Kentucky -19.5 (SP+ UK -15)
Projected Score: USA: 17 - UK: 37 (54)
UK Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
USA Travel: 545 miles, 1 hrs behind

Wildcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Will Stein (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#81)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
USA Players
UK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Alabama's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/12	South Alabama at Tulane	+17.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/26	South Alabama at Kentucky	+19.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule

Kentucky's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Kentucky vs Youngstown State	-27.5
Sat 9/12	Kentucky vs Alabama	+12.5
Sat 9/19	Kentucky at Texas A&M	+22.5
Sat 9/26	Kentucky vs South Alabama	-19.5
Sat 10/3	Kentucky at South Carolina	+7.5
Sat 10/10	Kentucky vs LSU	+12.5
Sat 10/17	Kentucky at Oklahoma	+21
Sat 10/24	Kentucky vs Vanderbilt	+9.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7	Kentucky at Tennessee	+17
Sat 11/14	Kentucky vs Florida	+3
Sat 11/21	Kentucky at Missouri	+17
Sat 11/28	Kentucky vs Louisville	+6.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	#80 (.16)	42% (85)	26.5	43% (76)	3.03 (57)	201	40% (94)	181	4.01 (40)	#118 (.24)	43% (89)	30.4	47% (114)	40% (48)	4.35 (127)	54.9	1	1.3
UK	#115 (.08)	42% (81)	23	45% (53)	3.05 (51)	139	40% (96)	202	3.84 (57)	#85 (.18)	44% (97)	26.4	44% (84)	45% (112)	3.98 (99)	41	1.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Offense	12	26.5	25.2	41.5%	4.01	1	21	382	201	181	4.6	60%	38%	43%	40%	13%	.16
UK Defense	12	26.4	22.6	43.7%	3.98	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	44%	45%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Defense	12	30.4	32	43.2%	4.35	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	47%	40%	15%	.24
UK Offense	12	23	31.7	41.6%	3.84	1.8	20	341	139	202	3.9	51%	47%	45%	40%	18%	.08

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Alabama	12	31:08	20.6	43%	54%	6.5	54.9	1	1.3	4.7	1	0	28.6
Kentucky	12	30:38	19.7	40%	52%	4.9	41	1.8	1.2	5.8	2.1	0	29.6

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Offense	12	60% (10)	43% (76)	44.3	201.2	4.6	30 (60)	.14 (60)	3.03 (57)	76% (40)	9% (53)	1.02 (49)
UK Defense	12	52% (94)	44% (84)	-	-	-	-	.09 (63)	2.89 (71)	68% (44)	10% (57)	0.9 (41)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Defense	12	54% (119)	47% (114)	-	-	-	-	.18 (109)	3.15 (109)	91% (136)	8% (109)	0.92 (50)
UK Offense	12	51% (52)	45% (53)	35.9	139.3	3.9	19 (70)	.06 (98)	3.05 (51)	70% (84)	11% (111)	0.82 (124)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Offense	12	38% (125)	40% (94)	17.7	25.8	181.1	7	10.3	13 (86)	6 (34)	.23 (79)	1.5 (81)	31% (55)	27% (102)	.28 (73)	4% (17)	2.1 (32)
UK Defense	12	46% (37)	45% (112)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (38)	.31 (99)	1.5 (64)	30% (91)	31% (85)	.31 (76)	5% (110)	2 (53)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Defense	12	44% (19)	40% (48)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (100)	.34 (113)	1.8 (129)	33% (40)	29% (64)	.37 (103)	6% (57)	2.3 (128)
UK Offense	12	47% (85)	40% (96)	19.1	30.6	201.9	6.6	10.6	15 (128)	14 (60)	.19 (101)	1.6 (59)	31% (62)	26% (113)	.02 (134)	7% (95)	1.7 (131)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -13.54 #126
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 5.47 #116
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 24.01 #127
2026 Talent Rating: 558.00 #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #103
South Alabama's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
South Alabama's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.7 #114
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #82
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 538.15
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -13.54 Kentucky: 6.47

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -12.7 Kentucky: 1.8

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 6.47 #53
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 15.36 #49
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 14.22 #58
2026 Talent Rating: 836.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 19 #25
Kentucky's 2026 Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1
Kentucky's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8 #66
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #80
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

South Alabama's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Kentucky 37
South Alabama 17

Projected Total Points: 54

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.7
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.6

Kentucky's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kentucky	0	0	0 Overs
South Alabama	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#126) USA at (#53) UK

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USA	UK
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#126	#53
SP+SP+	#114	#66
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#107	#50
Blue ChipsBC%	#103	#25

South Alabama Notes(2/26) Vibes: Don't see it, doesn't look like they care
(2/26) QB Davenport back, JAG at best. Not much depth
(2/26) Off was bad, lost a ton & added only a TE, 2 OL?
(2/26) RBs are Avg at best, WR are a poor unit on paper
(2/26) OL returns 2, added 1 FCS starter, avg unit LY
(2/26) DE's are OK but DT's are bad. LB unit strong
(2/26) DBs were best unit LY, return 1 CB but he's good
(2/26) Added 3 Off portals, but 2 Kickers? WYD?
(2/2) Applewhite era not working, cleaned house OC/DC
South Alabama Injury Report

Kentucky Notes(3/3) Vibes: Excited for Stein/Off. Big portal class
(3/3) 15 portals on offense will be tremendous boost
(2/2) New HC Stein fresh air, but OC/DC are ? hires
(2/2) QB Minchey is exciting. Could excel w/ Stein
(2/2) RBs have a lot of promise over prod. Could see it
(2/2) WR rebuild w 6 portals. Need some surprise hits
(2/2) OL mix of 2 really great adds with lots of projects
(2/2) DL parts to build, mix of 9 exp'd guys (5 adds)
(2/2) LBs need work. Lot of projecting success here
(2/2) DBs were awful LY. 6 portals, Bryant (S) good one
Kentucky Injury Report

South Alabama on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat	USA Off	UK Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#85	#97
ExplosiveExp	#95	#57
PPAPPA	#80	#85
PowerPwr	#116	#58
SP+SP+	#82	#48
Pts POPPO	#40	#99
HavocHav	#29	#93

South Alabama Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat	USA Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#76	#84
Run ExplRExp	#49	#41
PPAExp	#60	#63
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#57	#71
Stuff RateStuff	#26	#53
TackleTak	-	NR

South Alabama Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat	USA Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#94	#112
Pass ExplPExl	#81	#64
PPAExp	#79	#99
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#53	#57
DB HavocDB	#17	#110

Kentucky on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	UK Off	USA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#81	#89
ExplosiveExp	#128	#72
PPAPPA	#115	#118
PowerPwr	#49	#127
SP+SP+	#80	#125
Pts POPPO	#57	#127
HavocHav	#110	#94

Kentucky Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	UK Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#53	#114
Run ExplRExp	#124	#50
PPAExp	#98	#109
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#51	#109
Stuff RateStuff	#51	#103
TackleTak	-	NR

Kentucky Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	UK Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#96	#48
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#129
PPAExp	#101	#113
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#111	#109
DB HavocDB	#95	#57

Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

USA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'26 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

USA's OC Paul Petrino (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bishop Davenport	200	294	68%	2072	12	6	7.0
Jared Hollins	12	16	75%	101	1	0	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keenan Phillips	126	622	3	4.9	54
Bishop Davenport	116	326	9	2.8	56
PJ Martin	60	326	2	5.4	38
Trae'von Dunbar	3	41	1	13.7	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Eager	40	339	1	8.5	48
Everett Hunter (Tr)	24	283	3	11.8	36
Brendan Jenkins	9	117	1	13.0	30
Micah Woods	11	113	1	10.3	33

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Jason Washington (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tirrell Johnson Jr.	54	6	1	3	1
Caleb Dozier	39	1	0	3	1
Seidrion Langston (Tr)	36	3	0	0	0
Jayvon Henderson	27	2	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
E'Mauri Smiley	15	1	1	1	0
Tirrell Johnson Jr.	54	6	1	3	1
Emmanuel Waller	14	3	1	2	0
Jacob Porco	4	0	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayvon Henderson	27	2	0	0	5
Tirrell Johnson Jr.	54	6	1	3	1
Cole Blaylock	12	0	0	0	1

UK's OC Joe Sloan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kenny Minchey (Tr)	20	26	77%	196	0	0	7.5
JacQai Long (Tr)	6	18	33%	31	0	0	1.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jason Patterson	57	225	1	3.9	29
CJ Baxter Jr.	54	196	0	3.6	18
Kenny Minchey (Tr)	7	84	1	12.0	34
Jovantae Barnes (Tr)	19	45	1	2.4	10

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shane Carr (Tr)	47	655	3	13.9	44
Willie Rodriguez	23	310	1	13.5	53
Xavier Daisy (Tr)	18	177	1	9.8	21
DJ Miller	13	175	2	13.5	56

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Jay Bateman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Bryant	76	2	0	0	1
Jordan Castell (Tr)	54	0	0	2	0
Grant Godfrey	34	2	1	1	0
Mi'Quise Grace	31	7	4	6	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mi'Quise Grace	31	7	4	6	2
Lorenzo Cowan	13	5	3	0	0
Tavion Gadson	28	4	3	3	0
Jamarrion Harkless (Tr)	13	2	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Terhyon Nichols	18	1	0	2	4
Grant Grayton	16	0	0	0	3
Mi'Quise Grace	31	7	4	6	2