Troy at Arkansas State - 2020 Matchup Preview

Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, October 31st 2020 (3:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -3.5
Troy 38 - Arkansas State: 10 (Sun Belt)

Trojans (5 - 6) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 26 on Road)
'20 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST is playing their 5th straight game
TROY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -2 (SP+ TROY -9)
Projected Score: TROY: 26 - ARST: 26 (52)
ARST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
TROY Travel: 389 miles

Red Wolves (4 - 7) (6 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
'20 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TROY Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Troy's 2020 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19	Troy at Middle Tennessee	-6.5	70.5	W 47 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/26	Troy at BYU	+14.5	58.5	L 7 - 48	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10	Troy vs Texas State	-7.0	59.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/17	Troy vs Eastern Kentucky	-30.0	60.0	W 31 - 29	U	N
Sat 10/24	Troy vs Georgia State	-1.5	68.5	L 34 - 36	O	N
Sat 10/31	Troy at Arkansas State	+3.5
Sat 11/7	Troy at Georgia Southern	-2.5	51.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/21	Troy vs Middle Tennessee	-11.5	60.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/28	Troy at App State	+14.0	50.5	L 10 - 47	O	N
Sat 12/5	Troy at South Alabama	-4.5	53.5	W 29 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/12	Troy vs Coastal Carolina	+13.5	51.5	L 38 - 42	O	Y
Thu 12/17	Troy vs UL Monroe	-13.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2020 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Arkansas State at Memphis	+18.5	71.5	L 24 - 37	U	Y
Sat 9/12	Arkansas State at Kansas State	+15.5	56.0	W 35 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3	Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina	-3.5	64.5	L 23 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/10	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-15.5	56.0	W 50 - 27	O	Y
Thu 10/15	Arkansas State vs Georgia State	-3.5	72.5	W 59 - 52	O	Y
Thu 10/22	Arkansas State at App State	+14.0	69.5	L 17 - 45	U	N
Sat 10/31	Arkansas State vs Troy	-3.5
Sat 11/7	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+13.5	69.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/21	Arkansas State at Texas State	-4.5	69.5	L 45 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/28	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	-7.0	63.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 12/5	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-20.5	71.5	W 48 - 15	U	Y
Sat 12/12	Arkansas State vs Incarnate Word	-22.5	71.0

Important Stats (2019)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY	.26	48%	23.5	47%	3.05	143	48%	313	3.86	.23	46%	23.9	43%	46%	4.04	49.8	1.5	1.7
ARST	.22	43%	25.2	40%	2.95	127	43%	313	4.07	.17	44%	27.4	43%	42%	4.05	67.5	1.7	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2019

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Offense	12	23.5	23.4	48.2%	3.86	1.5	25	456	143	313	4.3	39%	59%	47%	48%	19%	.26
ARST Defense	13	27.4	27.2	43.7%	4.05	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	43%	42%	17%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Defense	12	23.9	25.9	45.5%	4.04	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	43%	46%	17%	.23
ARST Offense	13	25.2	29	42.6%	4.07	1.7	22	440	127	313	3.6	44%	54%	40%	43%	22%	.22

Additional Stats 2019

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Troy	12	28:47	24.6	47%	57%	5.3	49.8	1.5	1.7	7.3	3.8	3	28.3
Arkansas State	13	27:39	22.1	40%	57%	7.6	67.5	1.7	1.7	7.4	2.4	3	30

Run Game Stats (2020)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Offense	12	39%	47%	33.5	143.1	4.3	19	.18	3.05	70%	10%	0.98
ARST Defense	13	52%	43%	-	-	-	-	.16	2.9	72%	10%	1.1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Defense	12	48%	43%	-	-	-	-	.16	2.96	70%	12%	1.08
ARST Offense	13	44%	40%	35.1	127.2	3.6	13	.09	2.95	69%	13%	0.99

Pass Game Stats (2020)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Offense	12	59%	48%	26.3	40.9	313.2	7.7	11.9	30	11	.34	1.5	26%	40%	.44	9%	1.8
ARST Defense	13	46%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.22	1.5	31%	34%	.37	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Defense	12	50%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.33	1.6	31%	34%	.36	5%	1.9
ARST Offense	13	54%	43%	22.9	36.1	312.7	8.7	13.6	37	11	.34	1.8	35%	36%	.46	9%	2

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: NR
Troy's Offense Rating: NR
Troy's Defense Rating: NR
2020 Talent Rating: #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Troy's 2020 Expected Record: -
Troy's 2020 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.1 #71
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #71
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #67

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: Arkansas State: -2.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -0.1 Arkansas State: -9.1

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -2.05 NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2020 Talent Rating: #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Arkansas State's 2020 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2020 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.1 #100
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.1 #48
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #118

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.9

Troy's 2020 Record
Record: 5 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 26
Arkansas State 26

Projected Total Points: 52

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2020 Record
Record: 4 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Troy	10	Arkansas State	23	Troy -7.5	Arkansas State	52.5	Under
2024	10/26	Arkansas State	34	Troy	31	Arkansas State -8.5	Troy	50.0	Over
2023	10/07	Troy	37	Arkansas State	3	Troy -15.5	Troy	52.0	Under
2022	11/26	Arkansas State	19	Troy	48	Troy -13.5	Troy	43.5	Over
2020	10/31	Arkansas State	10	Troy	38	Arkansas State -3.5	Troy	0
2019	09/28	Troy	43	Arkansas State	50	Troy -7	Arkansas State	59.5	Over
2017	12/02	Arkansas State	25	Troy	32	Arkansas State -1	Troy	60.0	Under
2016	11/17	Troy	3	Arkansas State	35	Troy -8.5	Arkansas State	53.5	Under
2013	09/12	Arkansas State	41	Troy	34	Arkansas State -10	Troy	0
2012	11/17	Troy	34	Arkansas State	41
2011	12/03	Arkansas State	45	Troy	14
2010	09/25	Troy	35	Arkansas State	28
2009	09/26	Arkansas State	27	Troy	30
2008	12/06	Troy	35	Arkansas State	9
2007	10/27	Arkansas State	0	Troy	27
2006	11/18	Troy	26	Arkansas State	33
2005	11/12	Arkansas State	9	Troy	3
2004	10/16	Arkansas State	13	Troy	9

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	10	3	3 Overs
Troy	8	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 10	1 - 8	1 - 7	0 - 1
Road Teams	10 - 8	8 - 1	1 - 0	7 - 1

(#) TROY at (#) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TROY	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#71	#100
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#111	#97
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Troy Injury Report

Arkansas State Injury Report

Troy on Offense


CategoryCat	TROY Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#71	#118
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Troy Run Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Troy Pass Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TROY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#48	#67
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'20 Profile: Remains Average G5

TROY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'20 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Arkansas State -3.5 (0)
Troy won at Arkansas State this year (38-10)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Troy last year (23-10)
Arkansas State beat Troy in 2024 (34-31)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2023 (37-3)

TROY's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ARST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD