Mississippi State at Auburn - 2019 Matchup Preview
Mississippi State logo   Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers  Auburn logo
Saturday, September 28th 2019 (7:00 PM EDT)
Auburn -7.5 (47.0)
Auburn 56 - Mississippi State: 23  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
'19 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
AUB is playing their 5th straight game
MSST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -11.5  (SP+ AUB -18)
Projected Score: MSST: 24 - AUB: 29 (53)
AUB Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
MSST Travel: 200 miles
Tigers (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (26 - 16 @ Home)
'19 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Mississippi State's 2019 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Mississippi State vs Louisiana-19.061.5W 38 - 28ON
Sat 9/7 Mississippi State vs Southern Miss-16.551.0W 38 - 15OY
Sat 9/14 Mississippi State vs Kansas State-7.051.0L 24 - 31ON
Sat 9/21 Mississippi State vs Kentucky-5.548.0W 28 - 13UY
Sat 9/28 Mississippi State at Auburn+7.547.0L 23 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Mississippi State at Tennessee-5.052.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 10/19 Mississippi State vs LSU+17.562.0L 13 - 36UN
Sat 10/26 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+10.550.0L 30 - 49ON
Sat 11/2 Mississippi State at Arkansas-7.059.0W 54 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Mississippi State vs Alabama+19.061.0L 7 - 38UN
Sat 11/23 Mississippi State vs Abilene Christian-37.057.0W 45 - 7UY
Thu 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss-1.059.0W 21 - 20UN
Mon 12/30 Mississippi State vs Louisville-5.064.5L 28 - 38ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Auburn's 2019 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Auburn vs Oregon-4.055.0W 27 - 21UY
Sat 9/7 Auburn vs Tulane-15.051.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 9/14 Auburn vs Kent State-36.054.5W 55 - 16OY
Sat 9/21 Auburn at Texas A&M+4.048.5W 28 - 20UY
Sat 9/28 Auburn vs Mississippi State-7.547.0W 56 - 23OY
Sat 10/5 Auburn at Florida-2.548.5L 13 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Auburn at Arkansas-20.556.0W 51 - 10OY
Sat 10/26 Auburn at LSU+11.559.5L 20 - 23UY
Sat 11/2 Auburn vs Ole Miss-17.053.5W 20 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Auburn vs Georgia+3.042.5L 14 - 21UN
Sat 11/23 Auburn vs Samford-45.564.0W 52 - 0UY
Sat 11/30 Auburn vs Alabama+3.551.0W 48 - 45OY
Wed 1/1 Auburn vs Minnesota-7.054.0L 24 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule
Important Stats (2018)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST.2146%30.454%3.5122433%1744.35-.0337%30.238%32%2.2752.811.5
AUB.1743%26.844%2.9116741%2223.42.0838%20.738%35%2.4850.111.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
AUB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2018
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1330.425.846.1%4.351183982241745.756%42%54%33%14%.21
AUB Defense1320.716.438.2%2.481.7 - - - - - 48%49%38%35%19%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1330.23136.9%2.271.5 - - - - - 45%52%38%32%20%-.03
AUB Offense1326.826.443.5%3.421193901672224.348%50%44%41%14%.17

Additional Stats 2018
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1328:4017.941%38%5.652.811.57.42.7027.8
Auburn1325:5719.137%50%5.650.111.76.92.8532.1
Run Game Stats (2019)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1356%54%39.5223.55.726.293.5169%8%0.96
AUB Defense1348%38% - - - - .012.7564%12%0.93
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1345%38% - - - - -.082.578%13%0.8
AUB Offense1348%44%39.4167.54.325.072.9166%10%0.85

Pass Game Stats (2019)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1342%33%12.724.8174.2713.72210.121.830%34%.286%1.8
AUB Defense1349%35% - - - - - - 14.151.838%32%.237%1.7
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1352%32% - - - - - - 13.021.536%27%.067%1.6
AUB Offense1350%41%17.929.4222.57.612.4215.281.629%32%.325%1.9

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2019 Talent Rating:  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Mississippi State's 2019 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2019 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5  #50
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #36
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #69

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State:    Auburn: 13

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 3.5   Auburn: 21.0




Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 13 NR
Auburn's Offense Rating: NR
Auburn's Defense Rating: NR
2019 Talent Rating:  #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Auburn's 2019 Expected Record: -
Auburn's 2019 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.0  #9
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #34
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.9  #5

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2019 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Auburn 29
Mississippi State 24

Projected Total Points: 53
Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.4
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.4

Auburn's 2019 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/28Auburn27Mississippi State13Auburn -6.5Auburn40.0Push
202211/05Mississippi State39Auburn33Mississippi State -12.5Auburn50.5Over
202111/13Auburn34Mississippi State43Auburn -6Mississippi State51.0Over
202012/12Mississippi State10Auburn24Auburn -5.5Auburn50.5Under
201909/28Auburn56Mississippi State23Auburn -7.5Auburn47.0Over
201810/06Mississippi State23Auburn9Auburn -3Mississippi State45.0Under
201709/30Auburn49Mississippi State10Auburn -7.5Auburn51.5Over
201610/08Mississippi State14Auburn38Mississippi State -1.5Auburn55.0Under
201509/26Auburn9Mississippi State17Auburn -3.5Mississippi State58.5Under
201410/11Mississippi State38Auburn23Auburn -3Mississippi State0
201309/14Auburn24Mississippi State20Auburn -6Mississippi State0
201209/08Mississippi State28Auburn10
201109/10Auburn41Mississippi State34
201009/09Mississippi State14Auburn17
200909/12Auburn49Mississippi State24
200809/13Mississippi State2Auburn3
200709/15Auburn14Mississippi State19
200609/09Mississippi State0Auburn34
200509/10Auburn28Mississippi State0
200409/11Mississippi State14Auburn43
200310/18Auburn45Mississippi State13
200209/19Mississippi State14Auburn42
200110/06Auburn16Mississippi State14
200010/06Mississippi State17Auburn10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Auburn1664 Overs
Mississippi State854 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 105 - 63 - 52 - 1
Road Teams10 - 146 - 51 - 25 - 3

(#) MSST at (#) AUB
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSSTAUB
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #50 #9
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #21 #12
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Mississippi State on Offense
CategoryCat
MSST OffAUB Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #36 #5
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Mississippi State Run Game
CategoryCat
MSST OffAUB Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Mississippi State Pass Game
CategoryCat
MSST OffAUB Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Auburn on Offense
CategoryCatAUB OffMSST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #34 #69
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Auburn Run Game
CategoryCat
AUB OffMSST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Auburn Pass Game
CategoryCatAUB OffMSST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
AUB 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'19 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

MSST 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'19 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 5
Auburn -7.5 (47.0)
Auburn won vs Mississippi State this year (56-23)

Previous Matchups
Auburn beat Mississippi State in 2023 (27-13)

  
MSST's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

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MSST's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

AUB's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

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AUB's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD