Southern Miss at Mississippi State - 2019 Matchup Preview

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 7th 2019 (3:30 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -16.5 (51.0)
Mississippi State 38 - Southern Miss: 15

Golden Eagles (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (28 - 28 on Road)
'19 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -6.5 (SP+ MSST -8)
Projected Score: USM: 29 - MSST: 30 (59)
MSST Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
USM Travel: 150 miles

Bulldogs (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
'19 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USM Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Southern Miss's 2019 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Southern Miss vs Alcorn State	-27.0	55.0	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Southern Miss at Mississippi State	+16.5	51.0	L 15 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/14	Southern Miss at Troy	+3.0	49.0	W 47 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Southern Miss at Alabama	+36.5	63.0	L 7 - 49	U	N
Sat 9/28	Southern Miss vs UTEP	-25.5	48.5	W 31 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Southern Miss vs North Texas	-3.0	58.5	W 45 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech	-3.0	58.5	L 30 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/26	Southern Miss at Rice	-10.0	51.5	W 20 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Southern Miss vs UAB	-7.0	49.5	W 37 - 2	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Southern Miss at UTSA	-17.0	55.5	W 36 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky	-3.0	51.0	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/30	Southern Miss at Florida Atlantic	+8.0	57.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Sat 1/4	Southern Miss vs Tulane	+7.5	58.0	L 13 - 30	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2019 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Mississippi State vs Louisiana	-19.0	61.5	W 38 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/7	Mississippi State vs Southern Miss	-16.5	51.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Mississippi State vs Kansas State	-7.0	51.0	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/21	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	-5.5	48.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Mississippi State at Auburn	+7.5	47.0	L 23 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Mississippi State at Tennessee	-5.0	52.5	L 10 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Mississippi State vs LSU	+17.5	62.0	L 13 - 36	U	N
Sat 10/26	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+10.5	50.0	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/2	Mississippi State at Arkansas	-7.0	59.0	W 54 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+19.0	61.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/23	Mississippi State vs Abilene Christian	-37.0	57.0	W 45 - 7	U	Y
Thu 11/28	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	-1.0	59.0	W 21 - 20	U	N
Mon 12/30	Mississippi State vs Louisville	-5.0	64.5	L 28 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2018)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM	.07	40%	28.8	35%	2.52	113	41%	255	3.01	-.01	34%	27.4	32%	34%	2.66	41.4	2.1	2
MSST	.21	46%	30.4	54%	3.51	224	33%	174	4.35	-.03	37%	30.2	38%	32%	2.27	52.8	1	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2018

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Offense	11	28.8	28.4	39.5%	3.01	2.1	19	368	113	255	3.1	44%	54%	35%	41%	20%	.07
MSST Defense	13	30.2	27.9	36.9%	2.27	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	45%	52%	38%	32%	20%	-.03

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Defense	11	27.4	27.6	33.8%	2.66	2	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	32%	34%	17%	-.01
MSST Offense	13	30.4	33.9	46.1%	4.35	1	18	398	224	174	5.7	56%	42%	54%	33%	14%	.21

Additional Stats 2018

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Southern Miss	11	29:59	19.5	38%	44%	4.8	41.4	2.1	2	5.2	1.6	2	29.4
Mississippi State	13	28:40	17.9	41%	38%	5.6	52.8	1	1.5	7.4	2.7	0	27.8

Run Game Stats (2019)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Offense	11	44%	35%	36.3	112.6	3.1	11	-.07	2.52	67%	14%	0.87
MSST Defense	13	45%	38%	-	-	-	-	-.08	2.5	78%	13%	0.8

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Defense	11	48%	32%	-	-	-	-	-.06	2.49	71%	11%	0.9
MSST Offense	13	56%	54%	39.5	223.5	5.7	26	.29	3.51	69%	8%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2019)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Offense	11	54%	41%	24.5	35.4	255	7.2	10.4	19	13	.18	1.6	37%	34%	.32	7%	1.8
MSST Defense	13	52%	32%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.02	1.5	36%	27%	.06	7%	1.6

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Defense	11	50%	34%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.05	1.6	39%	23%	.06	6%	1.9
MSST Offense	13	42%	33%	12.7	24.8	174.2	7	13.7	22	10	.12	1.8	30%	34%	.28	6%	1.8

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: NR
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: NR
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: NR
2019 Talent Rating: #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Southern Miss's 2019 Expected Record: -
Southern Miss's 2019 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.8 #89
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #96
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #64

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: Mississippi State: 4.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -4.8 Mississippi State: 3.5

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 4.25 NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2019 Talent Rating: #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Mississippi State's 2019 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2019 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #50
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #36
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #69

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.6

Southern Miss's 2019 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 30
Southern Miss 29

Projected Total Points: 59

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2019 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	Southern Miss	17	Mississippi State	34	Mississippi State -11.5	Mississippi State	59.5	Under
2023	11/18	Mississippi State	41	Southern Miss	20	Mississippi State -18.5	Mississippi State	47.5	Over
2019	09/07	Mississippi State	38	Southern Miss	15	Mississippi State -16.5	Mississippi State	51.0	Over
2015	09/05	Southern Miss	16	Mississippi State	34	Mississippi State -13	Mississippi State	62.0	Under
2014	08/30	Mississippi State	49	Southern Miss	0	Mississippi State -26	Mississippi State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	5	5	2 Overs
Southern Miss	0	0	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	3 - 2	3 - 0	0 - 2
Road Teams	2 - 3	2 - 3	2 - 0	0 - 3

(#) USM at (#) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USM	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#89	#50
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#98	#21
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Southern Miss Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

Southern Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	USM Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#96	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Southern Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Southern Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	USM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#36	#64
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	USM Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	USM Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'19 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

USM 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'19 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Mississippi State -16.5 (51.0)
Mississippi State won vs Southern Miss this year (38-15)

Previous Matchups
Mississippi State beat Southern Miss last year (34-17)
Mississippi State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (41-20)

USM's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD