Kentucky at Mississippi State - 2019 Matchup Preview

Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 21st 2019 (4:00 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -5.5 (48.0)
Mississippi State 28 - Kentucky: 13 (SEC)

Wildcats (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 19 (15 - 22 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST 3rd straight Home Game
MSST is playing their 4th straight game
UK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -0.5 (SP+ UK -5.5)
Projected Score: UK: 22 - MSST: 23 (45)
MSST Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
UK Travel: 397 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 28 - 29 (25 - 23 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UK Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Kentucky's 2019 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Kentucky vs Toledo	-9.5	60.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan	-15.5	51.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Kentucky vs Florida	+10.0	46.5	L 21 - 29	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Kentucky at Mississippi State	+5.5	48.0	L 13 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/28	Kentucky at South Carolina	+3.5	54.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Kentucky vs Arkansas	-5.0	53.0	W 24 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Kentucky at Georgia	+23.5	45.5	L 0 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Kentucky vs Missouri	+10.0	43.5	W 29 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Kentucky vs Tennessee	-2.0	42.0	L 13 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/16	Kentucky at Vanderbilt	-9.0	43.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Kentucky vs UT Martin	-30.5	43.5	W 50 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Kentucky vs Louisville	-3.5	51.0	W 45 - 13	O	Y
Tue 12/31	Kentucky vs Virginia Tech	+2.0	47.0	W 37 - 30	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2019 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Mississippi State vs Louisiana	-19.0	61.5	W 38 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/7	Mississippi State vs Southern Miss	-16.5	51.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Mississippi State vs Kansas State	-7.0	51.0	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/21	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	-5.5	48.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Mississippi State at Auburn	+7.5	47.0	L 23 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Mississippi State at Tennessee	-5.0	52.5	L 10 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Mississippi State vs LSU	+17.5	62.0	L 13 - 36	U	N
Sat 10/26	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+10.5	50.0	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/2	Mississippi State at Arkansas	-7.0	59.0	W 54 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+19.0	61.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/23	Mississippi State vs Abilene Christian	-37.0	57.0	W 45 - 7	U	Y
Thu 11/28	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	-1.0	59.0	W 21 - 20	U	N
Mon 12/30	Mississippi State vs Louisville	-5.0	64.5	L 28 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2019)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UK	.17	42%	27.2	45%	3.27	279	34%	114	3.76	.14	41%	19.3	43%	38%	3.01	50.8	1.5	1.8
MSST	.26	46%	27.6	49%	3.46	221	41%	179	4.29	.21	46%	28.8	45%	46%	3.86	44.5	1.8	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UK	#118 (.09)	41% (89)		47% (31)	3.02 (71)	146	35% (123)	185	3.49 (104)	#62 (.16)	46% (111)		49% (122)	42% (75)	3.44 (31)	52.1	1.9	1.3
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Overall Stats 2019

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UK Offense	13	27.2	14.5	42.3%	3.76	1.5	19	392	279	114	6.3	66%	33%	45%	34%	22%	.17
MSST Defense	13	28.8	22.9	46.2%	3.86	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	45%	46%	23%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UK Defense	13	19.3	21.8	41.3%	3.01	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	43%	38%	22%	.14
MSST Offense	13	27.6	25.1	46.1%	4.29	1.8	21	400	221	179	5.4	59%	40%	49%	41%	20%	.26

Additional Stats 2019

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Kentucky	13	32:09	19.4	39%	52%	5.8	50.8	1.5	1.8	5.8	3.2	0	29.3
Mississippi State	13	31:40	21.5	39%	39%	5.5	44.5	1.8	2.2	6.9	2.3	2	27.2

Run Game Stats (2019)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UK Offense	13	66%	45%	44.1	278.8	6.3	36	.23	3.27	63%	13%	1.15
MSST Defense	13	51%	45%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.93	77%	14%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UK Defense	13	54%	43%	-	-	-	-	.16	3	71%	13%	1.08
MSST Offense	13	59%	49%	40.7	220.6	5.4	27	.27	3.46	77%	13%	1.09

Pass Game Stats (2019)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UK Offense	13	33%	34%	9.8	19.8	113.7	5.8	11.6	9	8	.02	1.6	31%	30%	.27	9%	2.1
MSST Defense	13	47%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.36	1.8	32%	38%	.36	10%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UK Defense	13	45%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.13	1.5	33%	33%	.45	9%	2.1
MSST Offense	13	40%	41%	14.3	24.2	179.5	7.4	12.5	19	10	.25	1.6	31%	36%	.41	8%	1.7

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: NR
Kentucky's Offense Rating: NR
Kentucky's Defense Rating: NR
2019 Talent Rating: #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Kentucky's 2019 Expected Record: -
Kentucky's 2019 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.1 #34
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #49
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #34

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: Mississippi State: 4.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 9.1 Mississippi State: 3.5

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 4.25 NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2019 Talent Rating: #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Mississippi State's 2019 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2019 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #50
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #36
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #69

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 27.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.5
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Kentucky's 2019 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 23
Kentucky 22

Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Mississippi State 22
Kentucky 21

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Mississippi State 24
Kentucky 23

Total Points: 47

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 27.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.1
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.9

Mississippi State's 2019 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/04	Mississippi State	3	Kentucky	24	Kentucky -5.5	Kentucky	44.5	Under
2022	10/15	Kentucky	27	Mississippi State	17	Mississippi State -3.5	Kentucky	50.5	Under
2021	10/30	Mississippi State	31	Kentucky	17	Mississippi State -1	Mississippi State	47.0	Over
2020	10/10	Kentucky	24	Mississippi State	2	Kentucky -3.5	Kentucky	57.5	Under
2019	09/21	Mississippi State	28	Kentucky	13	Mississippi State -5.5	Mississippi State	48.0	Under
2018	09/22	Kentucky	28	Mississippi State	7	Mississippi State -9.5	Kentucky	56.0	Under
2017	10/21	Mississippi State	45	Kentucky	7	Mississippi State -14	Mississippi State	54.5	Under
2016	10/22	Kentucky	40	Mississippi State	38	Mississippi State -1.5	Kentucky	54.5	Over
2015	10/24	Mississippi State	42	Kentucky	16	Mississippi State -11.5	Mississippi State	59.0	Under
2014	10/25	Kentucky	31	Mississippi State	45	Mississippi State -13	Mississippi State	0
2013	10/24	Mississippi State	28	Kentucky	22	Mississippi State -11	Kentucky	0
2012	10/06	Kentucky	14	Mississippi State	27
2011	10/29	Kentucky	16	Mississippi State	28
2010	10/30	Mississippi State	24	Kentucky	17
2009	10/31	Kentucky	24	Mississippi State	31
2008	11/01	Mississippi State	13	Kentucky	14
2007	10/27	Kentucky	14	Mississippi State	31
2006	10/28	Mississippi State	31	Kentucky	34
2005	10/29	Kentucky	13	Mississippi State	7
2004	10/30	Mississippi State	22	Kentucky	7
2003	10/25	Kentucky	42	Mississippi State	17
2002	11/02	Mississippi State	24	Kentucky	45
2001	11/03	Mississippi State	17	Kentucky	14
2000	11/03	Kentucky	17	Mississippi State	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	14	5	2 Overs
Kentucky	10	6	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 10	8 - 3	5 - 1	3 - 2
Road Teams	10 - 14	3 - 8	2 - 3	1 - 5

(#) UK at (#) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UK	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#34	#50
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#34	#21
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Kentucky Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	UK Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#49	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	UK Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#36	#34
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'19 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

UK 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'19 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 88° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 4
Mississippi State -5.5 (48.0)
Mississippi State won vs Kentucky this year (28-13)

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Mississippi State in 2023 (24-3)
Kentucky beat Mississippi State in 2022 (27-17)

UK's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD